Test of Weak Efficiency on Casablanca Stock Market, Chaotic Dynamic and Long Memory

Authors

  • El Mehdi Falloul

Keywords:

weak efficiency, Lyapunov exponent, ARFIMA model

Abstract

This paper aim to investigate the weak form efficiency of the Casablanca Moroccan stock market. After a brief explanation of the efficient market theory developped by Eygene Fama, we have made the whole classical econometric tests used to test the weak form efficiency, this is made by using MASI index that represents the whole stocks in Casablanca stock market. At the end of this study, we have rejected the hypothesis of efficience of Casablanca Stock market, and we have deduced that MASI is caracterised aby a choatic dynamic that we have cvalidated by calculation of Lyapunov exponent, finally and in order to judge the model that represent the MASI we have modeled MASI index using the process ARFIMA (p,dq) and we have deduced that MASI is caracterized by a long memory.

How to Cite

Test of Weak Efficiency on Casablanca Stock Market, Chaotic Dynamic and Long Memory. (2020). Global Journal of Management and Business Research, 20(B3), 27-41. https://journalofbusiness.org/index.php/GJMBR/article/view/3056

References

L Bachelier (1900) Théorie de la spéculation. 17(17), 21-86.

Abedini Bizhan (2009) An Evaluation of Efficiency of Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange. 1(4).

M Borges (2008) Efficient market hypothesis in European stock market.

R Bourbonnais (2015) Économétrie : cours et exercices corrigés.

T Breush, A Pagan (1979) A simple test of Heteroscedasticity and random coefficient variation. 47, 1287-1249.

J Campbell, A Lo, A Mackinlay, A Cooray (1996) Comparaison des qualités prédictives d'ARFIMA par rapport à la marche au hasard 7. 540, 2003-2005.

A Cowles, H Jones (1937) Some a posteriori probabilities in stock market action. 5(3), 280-294.

Alfred Cowles, Herbert Jones (1937) Some A Posteriori Probabilities in Stock Market Action. 5(3), 280.

Elroy Dimson, Massoud Mussavian (1998) A brief history of market efficiency. 4(1), 91-103.

David Dickey, Wayne Fuller (1979) Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root. 74(366a), 427-431.

D Dikey, W Fuller (1981) the likelihood ratio statistics for autoregressive time series with unit root. 49, 1057-1072.

Eugene Fama (1965) The Behavior of Stock-Market Prices. 38(1), 34.

E Fama (1970) Efficient capital markets: A review of theory and empirical work. 25(2), 383-417.

E Fama (1991) Efficient capital markets: II. 46(5), 1575-1617.

Eugene Fama (1998) Market Efficiency, Long-Term Returns, and Behavioral Finance. 49(3), 283-306.

Eugene Fama, Kenneth French (1988) Permanent and Temporary Components of Stock Prices. 96(2), 246-273.

E Fama (1970) Efficient Capital Markets: a Review of Theory and Empirical Work. 25.

French, Rollr (1986) Stock Return variances : The Arrival of information and the reaction of traders. 17, 5-26.

Clive Granger, Oskar Morgenstern (1963) SPECTRAL ANALYSIS OF NEW YORK STOCK MARKET PRICES. 16(1), 1-27.

Kashif Hamid, Muhammad Suleman, Syed Ali Shah, Rana Imdad Akash (2010) Testing the Weak Form of Efficient Market Hypothesis: Empirical Evidence from Asia-Pacific Markets. 58, 121-133.

Sandrine Lardic, Valérie Mignon (2006) L'efficience informationnelle des marchés financiers.

A Lo (1991) Long-term memory in stock market prices. 59(5), 1279-1313.

Andrew Lo, A Mackinlay (1988) Stock Market Prices Do Not Follow Random Walks: Evidence from a Simple Specification Test. 1(1), 41-66.

P Srinivasan (2010) Testing Weak-Form Efficiency of Indian Stock Markets. 1(2).

Nizare Riane (2014) Etude de la dynamique nonlinéaire des rentabilités de la bourse de Casablanca.

H Roberts (1967) Stock Market Portfolios. 208-214.

H Roberts (1967) Statistical versus clinical prediction of the stock market.

P Samuelson (1965) Proof that properly anticipated prices fluctuate randomly. 6(2), 41-49.

Mignon Valérie (2008) Les ambiguïtés de la théorie de l'efficience informationnelle des marches financiers. PP, 104-117.

Halbert White (1980) A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity. 48(4), 817.

Test of Weak Efficiency on Casablanca Stock Market, Chaotic Dynamic and Long Memory

Published

2020-03-19

How to Cite

Test of Weak Efficiency on Casablanca Stock Market, Chaotic Dynamic and Long Memory. (2020). Global Journal of Management and Business Research, 20(B3), 27-41. https://journalofbusiness.org/index.php/GJMBR/article/view/3056