Housing Finance and Sectoral Housing Stock in Kenya: Evidence from a Nonlinear ARDL Approach
Keywords:
Housing stock accumulation, Housing finance, Financialization of housing, Affordability, Nonlinear ARDL, Kenya
Abstract
This paper examines the long-run relationship between housing finance and housing stock accumulation in Kenya using annual data from 1970 to 2024. While standard housing models predict that credit expansion should stimulate residential construction, Kenya's experience suggests a limited transmission from housing finance to physical housing stock. The study employs a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag framework that allows for asymmetric short-run and long-run effects while distinguishing between residential and nonresidential housing stock. The results reveal sectoral asymmetry: housing finance is associated with shortrun adjustments in non-residential housing stock, but does not exert a statistically significant long-run effect on residential housing stock. Residential stock accumulation is instead driven primarily by income growth and construction costs. The findings suggest that housing finance deepening in Kenya has not translated into sustained residential housing stock expansion, raising important questions about the structure of credit allocation within the housing sector.
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2026-06-20
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