Perspectives of the World Economy from a Geopolitical Perspective

Abstract

Global economic activity proved highly resilient during the disinflationary period 2022- 2023 Employment and income growth remained relatively steady as favorable supply and demand developments supported the major economies despite rising central bank interest rates aimed at restoring price stability As inflation converges towards target levels and central banks move towards an easing policy stance a tightening of fiscal policies aimed at reducing the high level of public debt with higher taxes and lower public spending is expected to affect overall economic growth The pace of expansion is also expected to remain subdued by historical standards reflecting factors including the longer-term consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic Russia s invasion of Ukraine weak productivity growth and rising geo-economic fragmentation