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\title{Analysis of Financial Statements for Prediction of Business Sustainability in Rwanda: A Case of Banque Populaire Du Rwanda Ltd}
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             \author[1]{Jean Bosco  Harelimana}

             \affil[1]{  Institut daEnseignement Superieur de Ruhengeri Musanze}

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\date{\small \em Received: 10 December 2016 Accepted: 4 January 2017 Published: 15 January 2017}

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\begin{abstract}
        


Banks are the company which serve the society on the financial services. Banque populaire du Rwanda (BPR) is the one in providing such activity in Rwanda. Different means are provided to consider BPR activities. The main aim to this study is to analyze the financial indicators and business sustainability determinant of predicting future outlook of BPR Ltd during the period 2011 to 2015. BPR improves its services if it is aware of the sustainability index and the financial indicators as well as the relationship between financial indicators and factors of BPR business sustainability. After the employment of techniques in collecting both primary and secondary data on the sample of 83 out of 1606 total population, the financial indicators and business sustainability were analyzed using Bank Analysis Fact sheet (BAFs) and Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS).

\end{abstract}


\keywords{financial statement analysis, predicting, business sustainability, banquepopulaire du rwanda.}

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\let\tabcellsep& 	 	 		 \par
others? because the business sustainability can be detected from its financial analysis. This means that, a sustained success will depend on how well business is performing based on the analysis of financial statements, \hyperref[b2]{(Neely et al., 2000)}.\par
Financial indicators have long been the foundation for business sustainability measurement and there is a meaningful relationship between analysis of financial indicators and predicting its business performance.  {\ref Ofley (2003)} argues that financial measure of performance is very crucial as it serves as a tool of financial management, a major objective of a business organization, and a mechanism for motivation and control within an organization. The main difficulty is that many companies do not carry out their financial statements, or others do not analyze it. The problem associated with this, is that business strategies drawn by the decision makers are based on the poor measurement of financial indicators. The companies fail to perform due to the fact that they do not pay attention to the company financial statements for forecasting its business performance, (Chartered Institute of Management  {\ref Accountants, 2008)}.\par
A financial institution like BPR Ltd has to analyse its financial statements, to be able to monitor and control their specific activities; to predict future internal and external states; to monitor state and behaviour relative to its goals; to make decisions within needed time frames; and to alter the firm's overall orientation and/or behaviour.\par
According to BNR (2013), BPR is ranked on the second by assets, second by deposit and 3 by loans portfolios. It is also a leading retail bank in Rwanda, but this is not the case for the sustainability of its business. Because, having reviewed the BPR financial statements which are prepared in accordance with International Financial Reporting Standards and Law No. 7/2009 relating to companies, since 2008 while BPR became a commercial bank, it didn't divided the dividends to the shareholders anymore. In additional to, it's net incomes are yet below to those of other commercial banks which has lower assets, loans, and deposits than the BPR Ltd. This has been affected the BPR business strategies while planned the recapitalization scenario in 2014. According to prior-study made by the research to the BPR, this bank has been suspended to loan in the ended 2013. It was subjected a number of customers to run out of the BPR. Add that, a prior survey on the BPR financial report revealed that the company is counting three (3) years without making a profit, nor distributing dividend to the shareholders. Prior survey showed that BPR is not adequately capitalized to meet its obligations. According to the CEO's declaration through the BPR strategic plan, stated that in 2008, BPR had 25\% Rwanda's market share in loans and local currency deposits. But due to the adequately capitalized bank such as BK, due also to the new entrants into market competitively experienced bank including KCB and Equity Bank (both from Kenya), again from the introduction of a new cooperatives umbrella of SACCOs which targeting SMEs and individuals which have been traditionally BPR core markets, that market share has shrunk down to 14\% (as at 30 June 2013), and it is still dropping down (TURAHIRWA, 2014). Many of BPR branches are located far away from business areas, hence BPR has also been losing customers through poor service delivery that fails to meet their expectations.\par
Those are the serious issues affect negatively the performance of a business. It could also lead the BPR to run out the banking business, also to the inadequate resources allocation which the final results being the poor performance of the Business organization. In these state of affairs, it is suspicious to ensure on BPR outlook of its business performance. Analysis and interpretation of financial statements is an important tool in assessing the prediction of business performance in BPR. This research will assess whether there is a relationship between financial indicators and the determinants of predicting business sustainability in BPR Ltd. The study is focused on the following hypothesis: a. Profitability ratios, Liquidity Ratios, efficiency ratios, leverage ratios and market value ratios are the indicators of financial analysis of BPR Ltd. b. Payout ratio, retention ratio, internal growth rate and sustainable growth rate are the factors of the BPR business sustainability. c. The financial analysis indicators explain positively the prediction of business sustainability determinants in BPR Ltd. 
\section[{II.}]{II.} 
\section[{Objectives}]{Objectives}\par
In general, the research is to analyze the financial statement for prediction of business sustainability in Rwanda. The study will emphasis and ensure that the highlighting specific objectives are achieved. 1. To determine the financial analysis indicators of the BPR Ltd; 2. To analyze the determinants of the business sustainability of BPR Ltd;\par
3. To measure the relationship between financial indicators and business sustainability determinants of the BPR. 
\section[{III.}]{III.} 
\section[{Literature Review}]{Literature Review}\par
Financial indicators are statistics extensively used to monitor the soundness, stability and performance of various sectors of the economy,  {\ref (Jane et al., 2008)}. Their usefulness lies in their ability to provide insight into the relationships among economic and financial statistics such as debt, assets, liabilities, net worth, incomes and output, in other words, enhancing the analytical content of these statistics taken individual.\par
A financial statement is a written report which quantitatively describes the financial health, strength, performance and liquidity of a company. Bashir (1999), defines a financial statement (or financial report) as a formal record of the financial activities and position of a business, person, or other entity. Relevant financial information is presented in a structured manner and in a form easy to understand. A balance sheet, also referred to as a statement of financial position, reports on a company's assets, liabilities, and owners' equity at a given point in time,  {\ref (Gibson \& Charles, 2013)}. This includes a statement of comprehensive income, referred to as a statement of profit or loss, and often also includes a statement cash flow and a statement of changes in equity. Financial Statements reflect the financial effects of business data, transactions and events on the entity, \hyperref[b5]{(Muchemi, 2012)}.\par
Financial data consists of pieces or sets of information related to the financial health of a business. The pieces of data are used by internal management to analyse business performance and determine whether tactics and strategies must be altered,  {\ref (Gibson \& Charles, 2013)}.\par
Financial statement analysis (or financial analysis) is the process of reviewing and analysing a company's financial statements to make better economic decisions. Financial statement analysis is likely to evaluate the financial status of a company. An accountant will perform several duties, like profit and loss analysis, oversee management practices, and prepare financial statements,  {\ref (Gaurav, 2011)}.\par
A financial ratio or accounting ratio is a relative magnitude of two selected numerical values taken from an enterprise's financial statements. Financial ratios are mathematical comparisons of financial statement accounts or categories, (Audrey J., 2011). These relationships between the financial statement accounts help investors, creditors, and internal company management understand how well a business is performing and areas of needing improvement (Audrey J., 2011). According to Wozniewska, G. (2008), Ratio analysis is a useful management tool that will improve your understanding of financial results and trends over time, and provide key indicators of organizational performance. The following are the types of financial ratios analysis: 
\section[{Profitability}]{Profitability}\par
Bhole \& Jitendra (2010) a profitability ratio is a measure of profitability, which is a way to measure a company's performance. Common profitability measures include the Net Income Margin (NIM), which is the ratio of net income to sales, and Gross Profit Margin (GPM), which is the ratio of gross profit to sales. Others profitability ratios used in analysing a company's financial include gross operating margin (OM), return on assets (ROA), return on equity (ROE), return on sales (ROS) and return on investment (ROI). 
\section[{Liquidity}]{Liquidity}\par
In accounting, the term liquidity is defined as the ability of a company to meet its financial obligations as they come due, Bhole \& Jitendra (2010). Liquidity refers to an enterprise's ability to pay short-term obligations; the term also refers to its capability to sell assets quickly to raise cash. On other hand, Solvency refers to an enterprise's capacity to meet its long-term financial commitments. Moreover, the solvency ratio quantifies the size of a company's after tax income, not counting non-cash depreciation expenses, as contrasted to the total debt obligations of the firm. 
\section[{Efficiency}]{Efficiency}\par
Gibson \& Charles (2013) the efficiency ratio, a ratio that typically applies to banks, in simple terms is defined as expenses as a percentage of revenue (expenses / revenue), with a few variations. The most common efficiency ratios include: Total Asset Turnover and Inventory Turnover (BNR, 2013). 
\section[{Leverage}]{Leverage}\par
Robinson (2001), states a leverage ratio as any one of several financial measurements that look at how much capital comes in the form of debt (loans), or assesses the ability of a company to meet financial obligations. The most common leverage ratios include; Debt Ratio, and Debt to Equity Ratio  {\ref (Abbas, et al., 2012)}. 
\section[{Market value}]{Market value}\par
According to Abbas et al., (2012), Market value ratios are used to evaluate the current share price of a publicly-held company's stock. Market ratios allow the analyst to understand how other investors feel about owning a share of a company's stock According to Hakensen (2010), Business sustainability is often defined as managing the triple bottom line, as a process by which companies manage their financial, social and environmental risks, obligations and opportunities. These three impacts are sometimes referred to as profits, people and planet. Sustainability is broadly defined as meeting the needs of the present generation without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs. 
\section[{Pay-out ratio}]{Pay-out ratio}\par
The payout ratio is the percentage of net income that a company pays out as dividends to common shareholders  {\ref (Fischer et al. 2013)}. 
\section[{Retention ratio}]{Retention ratio}\par
According to BNR, (2013), the retention ratio refers to the percentage of net income that is retained to grow the business, rather than being paid out as dividends. 
\section[{Internal growth rate}]{Internal growth rate}\par
An economist James Tobin (1918), of Yale University states that an internal growth rate is the highest level of growth achievable for a business without obtaining outside financing, and a firm's maximum internal growth rate is the level of business operations that can continue to fund and grow the company. 
\section[{Sustainable growth rate}]{Sustainable growth rate}\par
According to James Tobin (1918), Sustainable growth is defined as the annual percentage of increase in sales that is consistent with a defined financial policy. Various studies have been carried out on financial indicators and determinants for predicting business sustainability; here is some review of them.\par
Saleem \& Rehman (2011), sought to reveal the relationship between financial indicators and sustainability for long run. He has acquired the Liquidity ratios and Profitability ratios calculated from financial statement as independent variable and dividend pay out to the shareholder as dependent variable. The main results of the study demonstrate that each ratio (variable) has a significant effect on the sustainability of business with differing amounts and that along with the liquidity ratios in the first place. He has concluded that Liquidity and Profitability ratios play an important role for forecasting the sustainability of a business.\par
Al-Tamimi \& Obeidat (2013) identified the most important variables which affect the Capital Adequacy of Commercial Banks of Jordan in Amman Stock Exchange for the period from 2000 -2008. The study shows that there is a statistically significant positive correlation between the degree of capital adequacy in commercial banks and the factors of internal growth, and the return on share, and there is an inverse relationship not statistically significant between the degree of capital adequacy in commercial banks and factors of the capital risk, credit risk, and the rate of force-revenue. In his conclusion, he stated that the size of capital contribute on the sustainability of business in current and in future. \hyperref[b1]{Almazari (2011)} in his study attempted basically to predicting the sustainability of business of seven Jordanian commercial banks on the basis of financial information of the period of 2005-2009, by using simple 
\section[{Year ( )}]{Year ( )}\par
regression in order to estimate the impact of independent variable represented by; the deposits, credits, assets, profit and operational efficiency and took dependent variable as sustainability growth and internal growth calculated from net income. It was found that banks with higher the deposits, credits, assets, profit are mostly sustainable in business, than bank with low the deposits, credits, assets, profit. Also found that there exists a positive correlation between financial ratio and its sustainability on market and competition, which was also confirmed with regression analysis that sustainability of bank is greatly influenced by these independent factors.\par
By this time, this study would concentrated financial line for analysis of financial statements for predicting business sustainability in Rwanda, with empirical study of BPR Ltd, 2011-2015. With support from financial line sustainability measures and majority of previous empirical findings, we hypothesize that: Ceteris paribus, there is a positive relationship between ?financial statements and financial indicators for predicting business sustainability of BPR Ltd. 
\section[{IV.}]{IV.} 
\section[{Methodology}]{Methodology}\par
The research is exploratory and explanatory in nature. The methology regarding this study is based on different method, qualitative and quantitative methods, among which various sources of information on financial statement and and financial indicators for predicting the business sustainability were compared and analyzed. Both primary and secondary data were collected and then analyzed through BAFs and SPSS. A structured questionnaire were designed for 83 from 1606 total population under this study. 
\section[{a) Data collection and analysis}]{a) Data collection and analysis}\par
Data was collected from a field using questionnaires, semi structured interviews, observation and documentation by 83 personnel and board of director's members of BPR. The total population under this study is 1606 where a sample of 83 personnel of BPR Ltd was calculated using Alain Bouchard formula as cited by Sabiti. F (2004). 
\section[{b) Instruments}]{b) Instruments}\par
The collected data was used to achieve the research purpose. Data was changed into meaningful information for easy interpretation and understanding. It was done through various forms such as texts, tables, and figures. The different techniques were used such as editing, coding, tabulation. The main techniques to be used are the techniques of financial statements analysis for, such as Ratio Analysis, Trend Percentages; common-size statements, mathematic data comparison as vertical and horizontal analysis. Company financial statement is analyzed to assess if the is any relationship between financial soundness indicators of BPR and its business performance. The variables have to be analyzed as well to test the hypothesis. The detailed definitions and the expected signs of their impact are given in literature review. The data collected have been checked for any errors and omissions. After the checking, the data have been coded and analyzed using Bank Analysis Factsheet (BAFs) and Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS). The indicators of financial analysis of BPR were Profitability ratios, Liquidity Ratios; efficiency ratios, leverage ratios and market value ratios.  The regression analysis was used in this study to measure the relationship between financial indicators and business sustainability of BPR Ltd. The correlation matrix was extracted using SPSS version 18.0 to show the correlation between roles of financial statement to forecasting sustainability of BPR Ltd as its determinants were shown in the conceptual framework. The regression analysis was used to establish the relationship between the variables of the study. The following regression model was used: ?? = ?? 0 + ?? 1 ?? 1 +. . . +?? ? ?? ? + ?? where ??represents the dependent variable means Business sustainability deteminants such as Payout ratio, retention ratio, internal growth rate and sustainable growth rate, and ? 0 is the constant term represent the model parameters of coefficients ?? 1 is the profitability ratios, liquidity ratios, efficiency ratios, leverage and ?? 5 market value ratio and epsilon is the error terms.\par
V. 
\section[{Data Analysis, Presentation and Interpretation}]{Data Analysis, Presentation and Interpretation}\par
The personnel under BPR Ltd financial sector is predominated by male with the percentage of 77\% while female has only 23\% of ownership of 83 respondent including employees daily involving in finance, Executive Management Team and board members' shareholders representatives (as owners) selected from the Banque Populaire du Rwanda Limited according to table 18 above. 
\section[{a) The role of analysing financial statement for forecasting sustainability of BPR Ltd}]{a) The role of analysing financial statement for forecasting sustainability of BPR Ltd}\par
In the literature, for predicting sustainable business requires effective and deep analysis of financial management. The BPR Ratio analysis is a useful management tool that will improve shareholders and staff understanding of financial results and trends over time, and provide key indicators of business sustainability. Decision makers should use ratio analysis to pinpoint strengths and weaknesses from which strategies for forecasting BPR sustainability. Shareholders and investors may use ratio analysis to anticipate their earning and its shares' growth in the future. Thus, to further ascertain the role of analyzing financial statement for forecasting sustainability of BPR Ltd, respondents were asked to indicate the role of analyzing financial indicators for BPR sustainability determinants.\par
The major reasons for why analyzing financial statement in forecasting sustainability, the respondents were to determine dividend to be distributed (89\%) Improve Sustainable Growth (88\%), Determine Retention on market price per share (81\%), Improve Internal Growth /self-financing (75\%) and Supporting in decision making and goal realization (64\%), attracting current and new potential investors (64\%), Efficiency utilization of resource to generate Profit (61\%) ,and Effective planning (47\%) as asserted by different literatures in every organization the overall aim is to make profit (Salemi 2012; chary, 2008). 
\section[{b) Financial indicators analysis of BPR Ltd}]{b) Financial indicators analysis of BPR Ltd}\par
Financial indicators which were analyzed in this research was to evaluate various aspects of BPR's operating and financial performance such as its profitability, liquidity, profitability, efficiency, Leverage and market value ratio. 
\section[{i. Profitability ratios}]{i. Profitability ratios}\par
Profitability ratios indicate the ability of the BPR Ltd to earn a profit. It is a measure of profitability, which is a way to measure a company's performance. Secondary data was used for the period of 4 years ended 31 December 2015 for analyzing the profitability ratios of the BPR Ltd. In computing Operating Margin ratio, tabulated data above shows a positive results. On Gross Margin, the tabulated data shows a negative results, especially in year 2015, 2013 and 2012, where ratios are -6.01\%, -42.02\%, and -1.16\% respectively. This means that BPR Ltd was recognized gross loss for these years. On Return on Assets, the tabulated data shows a negative results, especially in year 2015, 2013 and 2012. This means that, there were no any return recognized on the Assets, hence loss for these years. Return on Equity, the tabulated data 23 above shows a negative results, especially in year 2015, 2013 and 2012, where ratios are -11.97\%, -33.77\% and -4.98\% respectively. This means that, there were no any return recognized on the Shareholder's Equity, hence loss for these years. For other remaining years of 2014 and 2011, the table revealed that a positive Gross Margin was recognized by BPR respectively as 5.55 \% and 10.74 \%.\par
ii. Liquidity Ratios Liquidity Ratios indicate BPR's ability to pay short-term obligations; the term also refers to its capability to sell assets quickly to raise cash. A normal and BNR required rate are: maximum 80\% on Total Loans to Deposit Ratio, and minimum of 20\% for Liquid Assets to Total Deposit Ratio, (BNR, 2013). iii. Efficiency ratios Efficiency ratios indicate the company's ability to use its assets and manage its liabilities effectively. Expenses as a percentage of revenue (expenses / revenue), with a few variations. A normal and BNR required rate is a maximum of 75\% on the total expenses to revenues (BNR, 2013). By Business sustainability is often determined by as managing the triple bottom line a process by which companies manage their financial, social and environmental risks, obligations and opportunities. These three impacts are sometimes referred to as profits, people and planet. To analysis the BPR business sustainability in line of how company manages its financial opportunities, we focused on: Dividend Pay-out Ratio, Retention Rate or plowback ratio, Internal Growth Rate and Sustainable Growth Rate. From the table above, the results revealed that ddividends Pay-out Ratio for BPR were 0\% as no any dividend was distributed to the customer. In additional to, the result BPR Retention Ratio were negative as at -1.00\% for year 2015, 2013 and 2012, this indicated the percentage of a BPR's loss that are incurred in share value. For year 2014 and 2011, retention Ratio were 1.00\%.The results also showed that BPR internal growth rate were (7.62), 1.36, (1.44), 0.88 and (20.63) respectively for year 2015, 2014, 2013, 2012 and 2011 as the ratio expressing the maximum growth rate a firm can achieve without resorting to external financing. Sustainable growth for BPR as the annual percentage of increase in revenue that are inconsistent in accordance with a BPR defined financial policy.\par
According to the BPR sustainable growth rate as per research results were in (11.97), 5.51, (33.77), (4.98) and 10.74 respectively for year 2015, 2014, 2013, 2012 and 2011 as a determinant of the BPR's maximum growth rate in revenue using internal financial resources and without having to increase debt or issue new equity. About 60\% of the scope under study, the BPR has recognized losses. The shareholders does not earn dividends anymore. The calculated sustainability growth for BPR is critically and need other advance strategies to improve this situation and safeguard BPR public image such as capital adjustment and found other external resources. 
\section[{c) Analysis of Financial indicators and sustainability determinants of BPR}]{c) Analysis of Financial indicators and sustainability determinants of BPR}\par
The efforts in this space are looked to scientific and statistically sound methods to demonstrate correlations between financial indicators for predicting sustainability determinants of BPR. With this, the analysis begann with correlation testing of financial indicators against sustainability determinants followed by statistical hypothesis testing to see if we can definitively point to the most appropriate indicators.\par
The F-test was carried out to test the significance of the regression model in predicting the dependent variable (business sustainability). From the results, it was found that the five independent variables (Profitability ratios, Liquidity Ratios; Efficiency ratios, Leverage ratios and Market value ratios) as financial indicators of BPR Ltd (adjusted R squared = .726). That means the model explains 72.6\% the variance in the business sustainability of BPR Ltd (27.4\%) of variations are brought about by factors not captured in the objectives. Therefore, further research should be conducted to analyze the other factors (27.4\%) that affect prediction of business sustainability of the BPR Ltd. The regression equation appears to be very useful for making predictions since the value of R 2 is close to 1.\par
The findings shows that the linear regression Ftest results (F = 8.741; and 5df) are significant at p < 0.05, therefore, the hypothesis was positive for the researcher. But counting that BPR is earning, instead of a complete positive relationship, there are indications that the positive relationship is only true for low and moderate sustainability of business. Therefore, the hypothesis concluded that the regression model linearly explains the determinants for prediction of business sustainability of the BPR Ltd. Therefore, the study accepted the alternative hypothesis.\par
? Profitability ratios, Liquidity Ratios; efficiency ratios, leverage ratios and market value ratios are the indicators of financial analysis of BPR.\par
and sustainable growth rate are the factors of the BPR business sustainability. ? The financial indicators explain positively the prediction of business sustainability in BPR Ltd.\par
The study conducted a multiple regression analysis so as to determine the regression coefficients (?) which shows that ?? 0 = 1.238 and which means that all the independent variables such as Profitability ratios (?? 1 ), Liquidity Ratios (?? 2 ); Efficiency ratios (?? 3 ), Leverage ratios (?? 4 ) and Market value ratios (?? 5 )have an a significant contribution in prediction of business sustainability even if the x variable equal to zero means Y= 1.238 and the model equation become ?? = 1.238 + 0.258?? 1 + 0.367?? 2 + 0.423?? 3 + 0.157?? 4 + 0.345?? 5 .\par
Hence, ?0 = Constant term ? (1-5) = represent the model parameters or coefficients; 0.258 as contribution of profitability ratios, .367 as contribution from Liquidity Ratios, .423 contribution of Efficiency ratios, .157 contribution of Leverage ratios and .345 as Market value ratios contribution. 
\section[{d) Prediction of financial statement of BPR Ltd for three years (2016-2018)}]{d) Prediction of financial statement of BPR Ltd for three years (2016-2018)}\par
The BPR Ltd has started to re-capitalize its Share capital for competitiveness with other commercial bank, and some change in management and shareholders structure was made, (BPR, 2013). While developing the financial predictions, the following was the considered rationale for the predictions: 1. The key driver of the growth will be the deposits.\par
The bank endeavours to grow its deposit annually initially by 10\% and stabilise at 12.5\% by 2018. 2. The deposits should make available funds that are key to the growth of the loan portfolio. These will be based on the assumption of a stable economic growth averaging 7.5\% and a steady inflation rate of 7.5\% and/or below throughout the plan period. The BPR Ltd also should recognize the total liabilities and equity of Frw219,910,083 in 2016, Frw239,778,902 in 2017, and Frw265,496,753 as well as the same figure for total asset as the financial position might balance. The liquidity and leverage ratios might be improved from the new injected capital, as well as new management. Now, the BPR has recapitalized from frw16,491,238 to Frw43,519,181 after injecting the new investor "Atalasmara", the prediction was done with assumption that the share capital is constant. The BPR Ltd should recognize the Total liabilities and equity of Frw3,942,067 in 2016, Frw6,696,205 in 2017, and Frw10,758,302 for 2018. The upgrading of reserves may positively impact the BPR internal growth and sustainability growth.\par
? Pay-out ratio, retention ratio, internal growth rate 
\section[{VI. Conclusion and Recommendations a) Conclusions}]{VI. Conclusion and Recommendations a) Conclusions}\par
The analysis done so far has been related to the financial statement for prediction of business sustainability in Rwanda with a case of Banquepopulaire du Rwanda (BPR). BPR is the bank whose target market is the grassroots and maintains the lead in the segment. The bank was transformed to a commercial bank in 2008 with a vision "To be the leading retail bank in Rwanda". It is in competition with other commercial banks which have more than 30 year in this sector of commercial bank. The findings from analysis of financial statements for prediction of business sustainability of BPR Ltd were concentrated on Profitability ratios, Liquidity Ratios; efficiency ratios, leverage ratios and market value ratios as indicators of financial analysis of BPR; Pay-out ratio, retention ratio, internal growth rate and sustainable growth rate as determinants of the BPR business sustainability. The financial analysis indicators explain positively the prediction of business sustainability determinants in BPR Ltd.\par
The profitability ratios have indicated that the ability of BPR to earn profit is on low level where 3 to 5 years with 60\% BPR made a loss. BPR to pay short term obligations are not sufficient comparing the minimum and maximum requirements rate of BNR. BPR Ltd was sometimes unable to use its assets and manage its liabilities effectively. The ability of BPR to meet financial obligations, both long-term and short-term creditors are insignificant, the NPL rate of over rate 5\% obliged by the BNR and finally the Market value ratios were indicated an adverse relationship between the price per share and its earnings, growth and assets for the BPR Ltd. The Capital Adequacy of BPR cannot absorb a reasonable amount of loss and is not complied with statutory capital requirements by the BNR. The result revealed that BPR is exposed on the risks from taking excess leverage and becoming insolvent in the process.\par
The results revealed that dividends Pay-out Ratio for BPR were 0\% as no any dividend was distributed to the customer. In additional to, the result BPR Retention Ratio were negative as at -1.00\% for year 2015, 2013 and 2012, this indicated the percentage of a BPR's loss that are incurred in share value. For year 2014 and 2011, retention Ratio were 1.00\%.The results also showed that BPR internal growth rate were (7.62), 1.36, (1.44), 0.88 and (20.63) respectively for year 2015, 2014, 2013, 2012 and 2011 as the ratio expressing the maximum growth rate a firm can achieve without resorting to external financing. Sustainable growth for BPR as the annual percentage of increase in revenue that are inconsistent in accordance with a BPR defined financial policy.\par
According to the BPR sustainable growth rate as per research results were in (11.97), 5.51, (33.77), (4.98) and 10.74 respectively for year 2015, 2014, 2013, 2012 and 2011 as a determinant of the BPR's maximum growth rate in revenue using internal financial resources and without having to increase debt or issue new equity. About 60\% of the scope under study, the BPR has recognized losses. The shareholders does not earn dividends anymore. The calculated sustainability growth for BPR is critically and need other advance strategies to improve this situation and safeguard BPR public image such as capital adjustment and found other external resources.\par
To measure the realtionship between financial indicators for prediction sustainability, the hypothesis was positive for the researcher. Therefore, the hypothesis concluded that the regression model linearly explains the determinants for prediction of business sustainability of the BPR Ltd. The alternative hypothesis was accepted.\par
To summarize, financial statement analysis was concerned with analysing the financial position and the income statement of the BPR to interpret the business and financial ratios of a business for financial representations, business evaluation, and give a recommendation for forecasting its business sustainability. 
\section[{b) Recommendations}]{b) Recommendations}\par
From the above analysis it is recommended that BPR should start the recapitalization processes from Frw15,300billion to Frw16,491 billion, and now Frw43.519 billion. But till now this capital is not yet adequate for competing with other commercial bank with a total Shareholders' equity more than 60.3 billion, such as BK, KCB, and others with more than Frw45 billion such as GT-Bank and I\&M Bank. It is better for recapitalization of BPR Ltd Frw43.519 billion to Frw63.519 billion from potential local and/or foreign investors who share the same vision with BPR. Cost cutoff of unnecessary expenses and reduce high fixed costs related to extensive network. BPR has to centralise management of loans recovery to enhance efficiency.\par
BPR must grow in net revenues from loans and advances to customer, Net assets and profits. Continuing growth means increasing loan portfolio quality and therefore taking advantage to reduce per unit cost thereby increasing profits. Revamping the IT systems to better serve its mass customers on high satisfactory level and for better management and controls; Developing new competitive products to for customer need and profit realization; To continue growing its channels such growth in the Agency Banking, ATMs, internet and mobile banking channels; Restoration its public image by constructing a new head office, refurbishing rundown branches and relocating branches that are far from business areas and outside strategic business areas.\par
BPR should extend its reach to mass market through strategic partnerships with telecommunications companies, electronic transfer agencies. It should introduce mobile powered products in the market in order to tap into the power of the more than 6 million mobile phone users in the Rwandan market. Partnership with Government/Development partners that focus on the bottom of the pyramid. BPR should attract, develop and retain the best talent staff in the market for quality service delivery; and controls and operational efficiency by fully automation of payment processes. BPR's product lines have real growth potential and our strategy is to concentrate the available resources on growth both in reach and depth of BPR operations to ensure that they continue to be successful\par
The Government of Rwanda through BNR as financial regulator should conduct a continuous assessment of potential systemic risks to the Rwandan financial system and the development of policies to mitigate those risks. Government of Rwanda should be directly involved to help eliminate the financing gap faced by BPR through direct government interventions through public banks, credit guarantee schemes and other forms of subsidized financing.\par
The BNR should enhance a stable financial system which creates a favourable environment for savers and investors, encourages efficient financial intermediation and the effective functioning of markets, and hence, promotes investment and economic growth.\par
Further research should look on other variables rather than financial indicators and the business sustainability determinats. In addition, a researcher should put emphasis on analysis of financial statements for all financial system stability in Rwanda.\begin{figure}[htbp]
\noindent\textbf{1} \par 
\begin{longtable}{P{0.015178571428571427\textwidth}P{0.03373015873015873\textwidth}P{0.2681547619047619\textwidth}P{0.5329365079365079\textwidth}}
\tabcellsep \tabcellsep \multicolumn{2}{l}{INDICATORS OF FINANCIAL ANALYSIS OF BPR}\\
\tabcellsep Financial Indicators\tabcellsep Significant of determinant\tabcellsep Formula\\
\tabcellsep \tabcellsep \tabcellsep 1. Gross Margin = Gross Profit/Net Sales * 100\\
1\tabcellsep Profitability ratios\tabcellsep The ability of a business to earn a profit. It is a measure of profitability, which is a way to measure a company's performance\tabcellsep GM = GP / NS * 100 2. Operating Margin = Operating Profit / Net Sales * 100 OM = OP / NS * 100 3. Return on Assets = Net Income / Assets * 100 ROA = NI/A * 100 4. Return on Equity = Net Income / Shareholder Investment *\\
\tabcellsep \tabcellsep \tabcellsep 100 ROE = NI / SI * 100\\
\tabcellsep \tabcellsep \tabcellsep 1. Current Ratio = Current Assets ÷ Current Liabilities\\
\tabcellsep \tabcellsep \tabcellsep CR=CA/CL*100\\
\tabcellsep \tabcellsep Enterprise's ability to pay short-\tabcellsep 2. Acid Ratio = (Cash \& Cash Equivalents + Short-Term\\
\multicolumn{2}{l}{2 Liquidity Ratio}\tabcellsep term obligations; the term also refers to its capability to sell\tabcellsep Investments + Accounts Receivable) ÷ Current Liabilities AR= (CCE+STI+AR)/CL*100\\
\tabcellsep \tabcellsep assets quickly to raise cash\tabcellsep 3. Total loans to Total Asset Ratio (TLTA)= TLTA = Total\\
\tabcellsep \tabcellsep \tabcellsep Loans/Total Assets\\
\tabcellsep \tabcellsep \tabcellsep 4. Liquid Assets to Total Deposit Ratio (LATD) = LATD = Liquid\end{longtable} \par
 
\caption{\label{tab_0}Table 1 :}\end{figure}
 \begin{figure}[htbp]
\noindent\textbf{2} \par 
\begin{longtable}{P{0.002309782608695652\textwidth}P{0.0777626811594203\textwidth}P{0.0030797101449275364\textwidth}P{0.0015398550724637682\textwidth}P{0.3125905797101449\textwidth}P{0.007699275362318841\textwidth}P{0.05158514492753623\textwidth}P{0.3372282608695652\textwidth}P{0.04927536231884058\textwidth}P{0.005389492753623188\textwidth}P{0.0015398550724637682\textwidth}}
\tabcellsep \tabcellsep \tabcellsep \tabcellsep \multicolumn{3}{l}{BPR BUSINESS sustainability DETERMINANTS}\\
\tabcellsep \multicolumn{3}{l}{Business sustainability determinant}\tabcellsep \multicolumn{3}{l}{Significant of determinant}\tabcellsep Formula\\
\tabcellsep \tabcellsep \tabcellsep \tabcellsep \multicolumn{3}{l}{The percentage of net income}\tabcellsep Pay-out Ratio = (Total Dividends Paid)/(Net\\
1\tabcellsep \multicolumn{2}{l}{Dividend Pay-out Ratio}\tabcellsep \tabcellsep \multicolumn{3}{l}{that a company pays out as dividends to common}\tabcellsep Income) Pay-out Ratio = (Total Dividends (Common and\\
\tabcellsep \tabcellsep \tabcellsep \tabcellsep \multicolumn{2}{l}{shareholders}\tabcellsep Preferred) per Share)/(Earnings per Share)\\
\tabcellsep \tabcellsep \tabcellsep \tabcellsep \multicolumn{3}{l}{The percentage that}\tabcellsep Retention Rate= (Net Income -Dividends\\
\tabcellsep \tabcellsep \tabcellsep \tabcellsep \multicolumn{3}{l}{a company reinvests into its}\tabcellsep Distributed)/\tabcellsep Net\tabcellsep Income\\
2\tabcellsep Retention plowback ratio\tabcellsep Rate\tabcellsep or\tabcellsep \multicolumn{3}{l}{own operations. In other words, it is the percentage of net income that a company}\tabcellsep Earnings Retention Ratio or Plowback ratio= = Plowed back gross profits / total gross profits = Total Gross Profits -Pay-out ratio\\
\tabcellsep \tabcellsep \tabcellsep \tabcellsep does\tabcellsep not\tabcellsep pay-out\tabcellsep as\tabcellsep = (Total Net Profit / Number of Total share) -\\
\tabcellsep \tabcellsep \tabcellsep \tabcellsep \multicolumn{2}{l}{dividends.}\tabcellsep (Dividend / Share)\\
\tabcellsep \tabcellsep \tabcellsep \tabcellsep \multicolumn{3}{l}{Internal Growth Rate (IGR) is}\tabcellsep 1. Internal Growth rate (IGR) = ROA x Retention\\
\tabcellsep \tabcellsep \tabcellsep \tabcellsep \multicolumn{3}{l}{the highest growth rate a firm}\tabcellsep Ratio/\tabcellsep (1-(ROA\tabcellsep x\tabcellsep Re\\
3\tabcellsep \multicolumn{2}{l}{Internal Growth Rate}\tabcellsep \tabcellsep can\tabcellsep \multicolumn{2}{l}{achieve}\tabcellsep without\tabcellsep Whereas:\\
\tabcellsep \tabcellsep \tabcellsep \tabcellsep \multicolumn{3}{l}{considering or taking in to}\tabcellsep ROA= Net Profit / Total of Assets of the firm\\
\tabcellsep \tabcellsep \tabcellsep \tabcellsep \multicolumn{3}{l}{account of any external}\tabcellsep Retention Ratio = 1 -Dividend payout of the firm\end{longtable} \par
 
\caption{\label{tab_1}Table 2 :}\end{figure}
 \begin{figure}[htbp]
\noindent\textbf{3} \par 
\begin{longtable}{P{0.23367697594501718\textwidth}P{0.22783505154639175\textwidth}P{0.08470790378006873\textwidth}P{0.06426116838487972\textwidth}P{0.08762886597938144\textwidth}P{0.08178694158075601\textwidth}P{0.07010309278350516\textwidth}}
Profitability ratios\tabcellsep Formula\tabcellsep 2015\tabcellsep 2014\tabcellsep 2013\tabcellsep 2012\tabcellsep 2011\\
Operating Margin\tabcellsep OM = OP / NS * 100\tabcellsep 122.58\tabcellsep 124.58\tabcellsep 126.63\tabcellsep 129.23\tabcellsep 136.45\\
Gross Margin\tabcellsep GM = GP / NS * 100\tabcellsep (6.01)\tabcellsep 9.19\tabcellsep (42.02)\tabcellsep (1.16)\tabcellsep 12.78\\
Return on Assets\tabcellsep ROA = NI/A * 100\tabcellsep (1.15)\tabcellsep 0.58\tabcellsep (3.28)\tabcellsep (0.47)\tabcellsep 1.05\\
Return on Equity\tabcellsep ROE = NI / SI * 100\tabcellsep (11.97)\tabcellsep 5.51\tabcellsep (33.77)\tabcellsep (4.98)\tabcellsep 10.74\end{longtable} \par
  {\small\itshape [Note: Source: BPR, Annual financial report\hyperref[b1]{2011}\hyperref[b12]{-2015} , November 2016       ]} 
\caption{\label{tab_2}Table 3 :}\end{figure}
 \begin{figure}[htbp]
\noindent\textbf{4} \par 
\begin{longtable}{P{0.27937062937062934\textwidth}P{0.2833333333333333\textwidth}P{0.057459207459207455\textwidth}P{0.057459207459207455\textwidth}P{0.057459207459207455\textwidth}P{0.057459207459207455\textwidth}P{0.057459207459207455\textwidth}}
Liquidity Ratios\tabcellsep Formula\tabcellsep 2015\tabcellsep 2014\tabcellsep 2013\tabcellsep 2012\tabcellsep 2011\\
Current Ratio\tabcellsep CR= CA/CL*100\tabcellsep 24.31\tabcellsep 26.00\tabcellsep 33.71\tabcellsep 22.41\tabcellsep 31.84\\
Acid Ratio\tabcellsep AR= (CCE+STI+AR)/CL*100\tabcellsep 98.94\tabcellsep 100.0\tabcellsep 98.33\tabcellsep 103.4\tabcellsep 103.3\\
Total loans to Total Asset Ratio\tabcellsep \tabcellsep \tabcellsep \tabcellsep \tabcellsep \tabcellsep \\
(TLTA)\tabcellsep TLTA = Total Loans/Total Assets\tabcellsep 69.83\tabcellsep 68.18\tabcellsep 63.74\tabcellsep 74.49\tabcellsep 65.38\\
Liquid Assets to Total Deposit Ratio\tabcellsep LATD = Liquid Asset/Customer\tabcellsep \tabcellsep \tabcellsep \tabcellsep \tabcellsep \\
(LATD)\tabcellsep Deposit\tabcellsep 28.35\tabcellsep 29.31\tabcellsep 38.45\tabcellsep 26.13\tabcellsep 35.58\\
\tabcellsep TLTD = Total Loans/customer\tabcellsep 88.59\tabcellsep 85.47\tabcellsep 79.67\tabcellsep 98.26\tabcellsep 83.66\\
Total Loans to Deposit\tabcellsep Deposit\tabcellsep \tabcellsep \tabcellsep \tabcellsep \tabcellsep \end{longtable} \par
  {\small\itshape [Note: Source: BPR, Annual financial report\hyperref[b1]{2011}\hyperref[b12]{-2015} , November 2016       ]} 
\caption{\label{tab_3}Table 4 :}\end{figure}
 \begin{figure}[htbp]
\noindent\textbf{4} \par 
\begin{longtable}{P{0.7842034203420342\textwidth}P{0.06579657965796579\textwidth}}
\tabcellsep Year\\
\tabcellsep Volume XVII Issue I Version I\\
\tabcellsep ( )\\
Efficiency ratios Efficiency Ratio Net Interest Income Net Fee and Commission Income Accounts Payable Turnover Total Asset Turnover Accounts Receivable Turnover iv. Leverage ratios Analysis of Leverage ratio for BPR Ltd is to Formula Total operating expenses/ Total operational income Interest Expenses /InterestIncome Fee and Commission Expense/ Fee and Commission Income Interest Expenses/Average Accounts Payable Revenue (R) /Average Total Assets (ATA) Revenue / (Average Accounts Receivable) Source: BPR, Annual financial report 2011-2015, November 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 81.88 67.85 91.43 83.34 85.66 16.35 18.29 18.58 12.68 5.37 27.66 34.88 44.84 29.70 32.28 1.83 1.94 2.24 2.30 2.89 (0.01) 0.01 (0.03) (0.00) 0.01 (0.09) 0.05 (0.16) (0.04) 0.05 assess its ability to meet financial obligations, both long-term and short-term creditors are concerned. It indicates the firm's risk exposure in meeting its debt obligations. A\tabcellsep Global Journal of Management and Business Research\\
normal and BNR required rate is a maximum of 5\% on\tabcellsep \\
Non-Performing Loans ratio (BNR, 2013)\tabcellsep \end{longtable} \par
 
\caption{\label{tab_4}Table 4 :}\end{figure}
 \begin{figure}[htbp]
\noindent\textbf{6} \par 
\begin{longtable}{P{0.2777148253068933\textwidth}P{0.20868744098205855\textwidth}P{0.012039660056657223\textwidth}P{0.05457979225684608\textwidth}P{0.26005665722379606\textwidth}P{0.0072237960339943345\textwidth}P{0.008026440037771481\textwidth}P{0.012039660056657223\textwidth}P{0.009631728045325779\textwidth}}
Market value\tabcellsep \tabcellsep \tabcellsep \tabcellsep \tabcellsep \tabcellsep \\
ratios\tabcellsep \tabcellsep Formula\tabcellsep \tabcellsep \multicolumn{3}{l}{2015 2014 2013}\tabcellsep 2012\tabcellsep 2011\\
\tabcellsep \multicolumn{4}{l}{Price per share or Market Value Price per share/}\tabcellsep \tabcellsep \\
\tabcellsep Earnings\tabcellsep per\tabcellsep \tabcellsep share\tabcellsep \tabcellsep \\
Price-Earnings\tabcellsep \multicolumn{4}{l}{Whereas, (Earnings per share = Net Income/ Number}\tabcellsep \tabcellsep \\
Ratio (P/E Ratio)\tabcellsep \multicolumn{2}{l}{of Shares Outstanding)}\tabcellsep \tabcellsep (8.35)\tabcellsep 18.15\tabcellsep (2.96)\tabcellsep (20.07)\tabcellsep 9.31\\
\tabcellsep \multicolumn{4}{l}{Price per share or Market Value Price per share/}\tabcellsep \tabcellsep \\
\tabcellsep Book\tabcellsep Value\tabcellsep per\tabcellsep share\tabcellsep \tabcellsep \\
Market-to-Book\tabcellsep \multicolumn{4}{l}{Whereas, Book Value per share = Total Owners'}\tabcellsep \tabcellsep \\
Ratio\tabcellsep \multicolumn{3}{l}{Equity/ Number of Shares Outstanding}\tabcellsep 1.19\tabcellsep 1.04\tabcellsep 1.11\tabcellsep 0.81\tabcellsep 0.77\\
\tabcellsep \tabcellsep \tabcellsep \multicolumn{5}{l}{Source: BPR Ltd, Annual financial report 2011-2015, November 2016}\\
\multicolumn{2}{l}{vi. Capital adjustments ratios}\tabcellsep \tabcellsep \tabcellsep \multicolumn{4}{l}{excess leverage and becoming insolvent in the process.}\\
\multicolumn{4}{l}{The BNR as regulators track a bank's Capital Adequacy to ensure that it can absorb a reasonable}\tabcellsep \multicolumn{4}{l}{The criteria for the stress tests on assets quality used two capital measures as the relevant metric:}\\
\multicolumn{4}{l}{amount of loss and complies with statutory Capital}\tabcellsep \multicolumn{4}{l}{i. Regulatory capital (Total capital) divided by risk}\\
\multicolumn{4}{l}{requirements. It is decided by central banks and bank}\tabcellsep \multicolumn{3}{l}{weighted assets (RWA) -CAR}\\
\multicolumn{4}{l}{regulators to prevent commercial banks from taking}\tabcellsep \multicolumn{4}{l}{ii. Core capital (Tier 1) to risk weighted assets (RWA).}\end{longtable} \par
 
\caption{\label{tab_5}Table 6 :}\end{figure}
 \begin{figure}[htbp]
\noindent\textbf{8} \par 
\begin{longtable}{P{0.21636363636363634\textwidth}P{0.2905454545454545\textwidth}P{0.09581818181818182\textwidth}P{0.04945454545454545\textwidth}P{0.04945454545454545\textwidth}P{0.04945454545454545\textwidth}P{0.04945454545454545\textwidth}P{0.04945454545454545\textwidth}}
Ratios\tabcellsep Computation\tabcellsep BNR Requirement\tabcellsep 2015\tabcellsep 2014\tabcellsep 2013\tabcellsep 2012\tabcellsep 2011\\
Capital Adequacy Ratio\tabcellsep Total capital / Total risk weighted assets\tabcellsep Min 15\%\tabcellsep 2.96\%\tabcellsep 1.57\%\tabcellsep 1.13\%\tabcellsep 2.05\%\tabcellsep 4.36\%\\
Core capital to risk weighted assets (RWA)\tabcellsep Core capital / Total risk weighted assets\tabcellsep Min 10\%\tabcellsep 3.52\%\tabcellsep 1.64\%\tabcellsep 1.25\%\tabcellsep 1.65\%\tabcellsep 3.37\%\end{longtable} \par
  {\small\itshape [Note: Source: BPR, Annual financial report\hyperref[b1]{2011}\hyperref[b12]{-2015} , November 2016       ]} 
\caption{\label{tab_6}Table 8 :}\end{figure}
 \begin{figure}[htbp]
\noindent\textbf{5} \par 
\begin{longtable}{P{0.2802197802197802\textwidth}P{0.38296703296703294\textwidth}P{0.03736263736263736\textwidth}P{0.03736263736263736\textwidth}P{0.03736263736263736\textwidth}P{0.03736263736263736\textwidth}P{0.03736263736263736\textwidth}}
Leverage ratios\tabcellsep Formula\tabcellsep 2015\tabcellsep 2014\tabcellsep 2013\tabcellsep 2012\tabcellsep 2011\\
Debt Ratio (DR)\tabcellsep \multicolumn{2}{l}{Total Liabilities (TL) /Total 0.92}\tabcellsep \tabcellsep \tabcellsep \tabcellsep \end{longtable} \par
 
\caption{\label{tab_7}Table 5 :}\end{figure}
 \begin{figure}[htbp]
\noindent\textbf{9} \par 
\begin{longtable}{P{0.17\textwidth}P{0.17\textwidth}P{0.17\textwidth}P{0.17\textwidth}P{0.17\textwidth}}
2015\tabcellsep 2014\tabcellsep 2013\tabcellsep 2012\tabcellsep 2011\end{longtable} \par
  {\small\itshape [Note: Source: BPR, Annual financial report\hyperref[b1]{2011}\hyperref[b12]{-2015} , November 2016       ]} 
\caption{\label{tab_8}Table 9 :}\end{figure}
 			\footnote{Analysis of Financial Statements for Prediction of Business Sustainability in Rwanda: A Case of BanquePopulaire Du Rwanda Ltd} 			\footnote{© 2017 Global Journals Inc. (US)} 			\footnote{( ) 2017 © 2017 Global Journals Inc. (US) 1} 		 		\backmatter  			  				\begin{bibitemlist}{1}
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