@incollection{,
	
					
					
					70147333EAED980BEE61EB06981A67C1
				,
	author={{ValeriaCroce}},
	journal={{Global Journal of Management and Business Research}},
	journal={{GJMBR}}2249-45880975-585310.34257/GJMBR,
	address={Cambridge, United States},
	publisher={Global Journals Organisation}1612942
}

@incollection{b0,
	
	
		,
	title={{A novel approach to model selection in tourism demand modeling}}
		,
	author={{
			MAk?n
		}}
	
	
		,
	journal={{Tourism}}
		
			48
			
			,
	year={2015}
		
	

}

@incollection{b1,
	
	
		,
	title={{Making progress in forecasting}}
		,
	author={{
			JSArmstrong
		} and {
			RFildes
		}}
		
	
	
		,
	journal={{International journal of forecasting}}
		
			22
			3
			
			,
	year={2006}
		
	

}

@incollection{b2,
	
	
		,
	title={{The tourism forecasting competition}}
		,
	author={{
			GAthanasopoulos
		} and {
			RJHyndman
		} and {
			HSong
		} and {
			DCWu
		}}
		
		
		
	
	
		,
	journal={{International Journal of Forecasting}}
		
			27
			3
			
			,
	year={2011}
		
	

}

@book{b3,
	
	
		,
	title={{The economics of tourism destinations. The Economics of Tourism Destinations}}
		,
	author={{
			GCandela
		} and {
			PFigini
		}}
		
		
			,
	year={2012}
			,
	publisher={Springer}
			
		
	

}

@incollection{b4,
	
	
		,
	title={{Integrating quantitative and qualitative forecasting approaches: organizational learning in an action research case}}
		,
	author={{
			FCaniato
		} and {
			MKalchschmidt
		} and {
			SRonchi
		}}
		
		
	
	
		,
	journal={{Journal of the Operational Research}}
		
			Society
			
			,
	year={2011}
		
	

}

@incollection{b5,
	
	
		,
	title={{Can tourism confidence index improve tourism demand forecasts?}}
		,
	author={{
			VCroce
		}}
	
	
		,
	journal={{Journal of Tourism Futures}}
		
			2
			1
			
			,
	year={2016}
		
	

}

@incollection{b6,
	
	
		,
	title={{Expert identification and calibration for collective forecasting tasks}}
		,
	author={{
			VCroce
		} and {
			KWöber
		} and {
			JKester
		}}
		
		
	
	
		,
	journal={{Tourism Economics}}
		
			,
	year={2015}
		
	
	,
	note={In print}

}

@book{b7,
	
	
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	title={{}}
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	author={{
			FDiebold
		} and {
			RMariano
		}}
		
		
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	year={1995}
		
	
	,
	note={Comparing predictive accuracy, 3HMJG; EH,
	, MKCG}

}

@incollection{b8,
	
	
		,
	title={{The design features of forecasting support systems and their effectiveness}}
		,
	author={{
			RFildes
		} and {
			PGoodwin
		} and {
			MLawrence
		}}
		
		
	
	
		,
	journal={{Decis. Support Syst}}
		
			42
			1
			
			,
	year={2006}
		
	

}

@incollection{b9,
	
	
		,
	title={{Effective forecasting and judgmental adjustments: an empirical evaluation and strategies for improvement in supply-chain planning}}
		,
	author={{
			RFildes
		} and {
			PGoodwin
		} and {
			MLawrence
		} and {
			KNikolopoulos
		}}
		
		
		
	
	
		,
	journal={{International journal of forecasting}}
		
			25
			1
			
			,
	year={2009}
		
	

}

@book{b10,
	
	
		,
	title={{Forecasting Tourism Demand: Methods and Strategies}}
		,
	author={{
			DCFrechtling
		}}
		
			,
	year={2001}
			,
	address={Oxford, Butterworth-Heinemann}
		
	

}

@incollection{b11,
	
	
		,
	title={{The methodological progress of tourism demand forecasting: a review of related literature}}
		,
	author={{
			CGoh
		} and {
			RLaw
		}}
		
	
	
		,
	journal={{Journal of Travel & Tourism Marketing}}
		
			28
			3
			
			,
	year={2011}
		
	

}

@book{b12,
	
	
		,
	title={{A decision rule-based forecasting model for tourism demand: An application and comparison Ph}}
		,
	author={{
			KL CGoh
		}}
		
			,
	year={2004}
		
		
			Hong Kong Polytechnic University (People's Republic of China
		
	

}

@incollection{b13,
	
	
		,
	title={{An analysis of the international tourism demand in Spain}}
		,
	author={{
			PGonzalez
		} and {
			P
		}}
		
	
	
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			11
			2
			
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}

@incollection{b14,
	
	
		,
	title={{Integrating management judgment and statistical methods to improve shortterm forecasts}}
		,
	author={{
			PGoodwin
		}}
	
	
		,
	journal={{Omega}}
		
			30
			2
			
			,
	year={2002}
		
	

}

@book{b15,
	
	
		,
	title={{Report on a Long-Range Forecasting Study}}
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	author={{
			TJGordon
		} and {
			OHelmer
		}}
		
		
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	year={1964}
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	publisher={RAND}
		
	

}

@incollection{b16,
	
	
		,
	title={{Investigating causal relations by econometric models and cross-spectral methods}}
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			CWGranger
		}}
	
	
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}

@incollection{b17,
	
	
		,
	title={{Real-time forecasting regional tourism with business sentiment surveys}}
		,
	author={{
			AGuizzardi
		} and {
			AStacchini
		}}
		
	
	
		,
	journal={{Tourism}}
		
			47
			
			,
	year={2015}
		
	

}

@incollection{b18,
	
	
		,
	title={{Theory and applications of the Delphi technique: A bibliography (1975-1994)}}
		,
	author={{
			UGGupta
		} and {
			REClarke
		}}
		
	
	
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			53
			2
			
			,
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}

@book{b19,
	
	
		,
	title={{Forecasting, structural time series models and the Kalman filter}}
		,
	author={{
			ACHarvey
		}}
		
			,
	year={1990}
			,
	publisher={Cambridge university press}
		
	

}

@incollection{b20,
	
	
		,
	title={{On the epistemology of the inexact sciences}}
		,
	author={{
			OHelmer
		} and {
			NRescher
		}}
		
	
	
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			1
			
			,
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}

@book{b21,
	
	
		,
	title={{Economic forecasting: an introduction}}
		,
	author={{
			KHolden
		} and {
			DAPeel
		} and {
			JLThompson
		}}
		
		
		
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	year={1990}
			,
	publisher={Cambridge University Press}
		
	

}

@book{b22,
	
	
		,
	title={{Tourism development in advanced and emerging economies: What does the Travel & Tourism Competitiveness Index tell us}}
		,
	author={{
			JKester
		} and {
			VCroce
		}}
		
		
			,
	year={2011}
		
	

}

@incollection{b23,
	
	
		,
	title={{Forecasting international quarterly tourist flows using errorcorrection and time-series models}}
		,
	author={{
			NKulendran
		} and {
			MLKing
		}}
		
	
	
		,
	journal={{International Journal of Forecasting}}
		
			13
			3
			
			,
	year={1997}
		
	

}

@incollection{b24,
	
	
		,
	title={{Cointegration versus least squares regression}}
		,
	author={{
			NKulendran
		} and {
			SFWitt
		}}
		
	
	
		,
	journal={{Annals of Tourism Research}}
		
			28
			2
			
			,
	year={2001}
		
	

}

@incollection{b25,
	
	
		,
	title={{Recent Developments in Econometric Modeling and Forecasting}}
		,
	author={{
			GLi
		} and {
			HSong
		} and {
			SFWitt
		}}
		
		
	
	
		,
	journal={{Journal of Travel Research}}
		
			44
			1
			
			,
	year={2005}
		
	

}

@incollection{b26,
	
	
		,
	title={{A technique for the measurement of attitudes}}
		,
	author={{
			RLikert
		}}
	
	
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	journal={{Archive of Psychology}}
		
			22
			140
			55
			,
	year={1932}
		
	

}

@incollection{b27,
	
	
		,
	title={{Decision making and planning under low levels of predictability}}
		,
	author={{
			SMakridakis
		} and {
			NTaleb
		}}
		
	
	
		,
	journal={{International Journal of Forecasting}}
		
			25
			4
			
			,
	year={2009}
		
	

}

@book{b28,
	
	
		,
	title={{Forecasting: Methods and Applications}}
		,
	author={{
			SMakridakis
		} and {
			SCWheelwright
		} and {
			RJHyndman
		}}
		
		
		
			,
	year={1998}
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	publisher={Wiley}
			,
	address={New York}
		
	

}

@incollection{b29,
	
	
		,
	title={{Impacts of the global financial crisis on African tourism: a tourism confidence index analysis}}
		,
	author={{
			TMihalic
		} and {
			JKester
		} and {
			LDwyer
		}}
		
		
	
	
		,
	journal={{Tourism and Crisis}}
		
			
			,
	year={2013}
		
	

}

@incollection{b30,
	
	
		,
	title={{A leading indicator approach to predicting short-term shifts in demand for business travel by air to and from the UK}}
		,
	author={{
			NNjegovan
		}}
	
	
		,
	journal={{Journal of Forecasting}}
		
			24
			6
			
			,
	year={2005}
		
	

}

@incollection{b31,
	
	
		,
	title={{A metaanalysis of international tourism demand forecasting and implications for practice}}
		,
	author={{
			BPeng
		} and {
			HSong
		} and {
			GICrouch
		}}
		
		
	
	
		,
	journal={{Tourism Management}}
		
			45
			
			,
	year={2014}
		
	

}

@incollection{b32,
	
	
		,
	title={{The Delphi technique as a forecasting tool: issues and analysis}}
		,
	author={{
			GRowe
		} and {
			GWright
		}}
		
	
	
		,
	journal={{International journal of forecasting}}
		
			15
			4
			
			,
	year={1999}
		
	

}

@incollection{b33,
	
	
		,
	title={{Expert opinions in forecasting: Role of the Delphi technique. Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners}}
		,
	author={{
			GRowe
		} and {
			GWright
		}}
		
	
	
		,
	journal={{J. S. Armstrong. Norwell}}
		
			,
	year={2001}
			,
	publisher={Kluwer Academic Publishers}
		
	

}

@book{b34,
	
	
		,
	title={{Programming Collective Intelligence}}
		,
	author={{
			TSegaran
		}}
		
			,
	year={2007}
			,
	address={Sebastopol, O'Reilly}
		
	

}

@incollection{b35,
	
	
		,
	title={{Tourism demand modelling and forecasting -A review of recent research}}
		,
	author={{
			HSong
		} and {
			GLi
		}}
		
	
	
		,
	journal={{Tourism Management}}
		
			29
			2
			
			,
	year={2008}
		
	

}

@book{b36,
	
	
		,
	author={{
			JSwarbrooke
		} and {
			SHorner
		}}
		
		,
	title={{Business travel and tourism}}
				Routledge
		
			,
	year={2001}
		
	

}

@incollection{b37,
	
	
		,
	title={{Business Cycles and the Role of Confidence: Evidence for Europe*}}
		,
	author={{
			KTaylor
		} and {
			RMcnabb
		}}
		
	
	
		,
	journal={{Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics}}
		
			69
			2
			
			,
	year={2007}
		
	

}

@incollection{b38,
	
	
		,
	title={{Factors influencing demand for international tourism: Tourism demand analysis using structural equation modelling, revisited}}
		,
	author={{
			LWTurner
		} and {
			SFWitt
		}}
		
	
	
		,
	journal={{Tourism Economics}}
		
			7
			1
			
			,
	year={2001}
		
	

}

@book{b39,
	
	
		,
	title={{UNWTO World Tourism Barometer}}
		,
	author={{
			Unwto
		}}
		UNWTO. 14
		
			,
	year={2016}
			,
	publisher={UNWTO. Madrid}
		
	

}

@book{b40,
	
	
		,
	title={{The economics of tourism destinations}}
		,
	author={{
			NVanhove
		}}
		
			,
	year={2011}
			,
	address={Routledge}
		
	

}

@incollection{b41,
	
	
		,
	title={{The Delphi technique: a methodological discussion}}
		,
	author={{
			PLWilliams
		} and {
			CWebb
		}}
		
	
	
		,
	journal={{Journal of Advanced Nursing}}
		
			19
			1
			
			,
	year={1994}
		
	

}

@incollection{b42,
	
	
		,
	title={{Forecasting tourism demand: A review of empirical research}}
		,
	author={{
			SFWitt
		} and {
			CWitt
		}}
		
	
	
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	journal={{International journal}}
		
			11
			
			,
	year={1995}
		
	

}

@book{b43,
	
	
		,
	title={{Prediction markets}}
		,
	author={{
			JWolfers
		} and {
			EZitzewitz
		}}
		
		
			,
	year={2004}
		
		
			National Bureau of Economic Research
		
	

}

@incollection{b44,
	
	
		,
	title={{An Evaluation of Delphi}}
		,
	author={{
			FWoundenberg
		}}
	
	
		,
	journal={{Technological Forecasting and Social}}
		
			40
			
			,
	year={1991}
		
	

}

@incollection{b45,
	
	
		,
	title={{Investigating other leading indicators influencing Australian domestic tourism demand}}
		,
	author={{
			GYap
		} and {
			DAllen
		}}
		
	
	
		,
	journal={{Mathematics and Computers in Simulation}}
		
			81
			7
			
			,
	year={2011}
		
	

}