The Introduction of GSM Services in Anyigba Community and its Impact on Students Expenditure Pattern Olukotun, G. Ademola ? , James, O. Olusegun ? & Olorunfemi Kehinde ? Introduction t independence in 1960, with the population of roughly 45million people, Nigeria had about 18,724 phone lines for use. This translated to teledensity of a telephone line to 2403 people. Between independence in 1960 and 1985, telecoms services of Post and Telecommunication (P&T) under the Ministry of Communications became separated and Nigeria External Telecommunications (N.E.T) Ltd was created to take care of external telecommunications services while the old P&T handled internal network. One of the objectives of establishing Nigeria Telecommunication Limited (NITEL) was to provide accessible, efficient and affordable telephone services. NITEL, the only national monopoly operator in the sector was synonymous with epileptic services and bad management which made telephone then to be unreliable, congested, expensive and customer unfriendly. According to Ajayi et al (2008), the years 1992 to 1999 was tagged the liberal liberalization era when government embarked on market oriented, partial liberalization of the Nigerian telecommunication sector via the Nigeria Communication Commission (NCC) Decree 75 of 1992. There is no doubt that the telecommunication system in Nigeria has undergone a revolution since the deregulation of the market. Ever since then, there has been astronomical growth in the acquisition of cell phones by the youths, the grown-ups and even the aged. Similarly, the Nigeria Communication Commission NCC, seeing the robust growth in the sector, encouraged the entry of more mobile operators into the market in the year 2001. This has influenced the teledensity growth from 0.73% in December 2011 to 26.77% in August 2007 and the market witnessed increased records of investment on daily basis. In year 2001, the NCC held an open auction for G.S.M licenses which were issued to MTEL, operating as M-TEL, South African Telecoms Company, operating as MTN and a consortium led by Zimbabweans as ECONET Wireless. The entry of the mobile operators immediately changed NITEL's control of the market. Consumers saw that mobile phones offered better opportunities than the limited fixed line infrastructure offered by NITEL. # a) Statement of Research Problem Information dissemination between and within States, Local Governments etc. were carried out loosely by the use of automobiles in Nigeria despite the fact that NITEL was in operation before the year 2001. This was because, NITEL served the affluent in the society; hence their services were not within the reach of the poor. It was so bad that customers pay money in advance (for several months) to acquire telephone lines and customers had to follow NITEL officially round the town at times for a whole day to get their telephone lines repaired (if you are lucky, after 1 or 2 months). Anyigba community was not immuned from the above scenario. In fact, in its case, it was worse. It is a rural settlement and not even a Local Government headquarter. There was no NITEL in the community. The means of communication was basically through NIPOST, sending other people on errand, sending people who came from the other communities to their relations when they are going back etc. Before the introduction of G.S.M in Anyigba community, GSM has started serving the communities of Ankpa and Dekina though erratically. However, people from Anyigba community sometimes go to these neighbouring communities of Ankpa and Dekina to make telephone calls with the attendant risks, non and bad networks. Prior to the introduction of G.S.M in this community, students spent their income/pocket money/upkeep allowances on items like food, clothing, academic exercises, social activities etc. But with its introduction, it adds up to the unending list of students' expenditure items i.e. expenditure on purchase of phones, recharge cards, internet facilities and subscriptions such as modems, mobile phone charges etc. Intuitively, from the foregoing trend of GSM introduction in Anyigba community, one is likely to ask this question: Has the introduction of GSM services affected the students' expenditure pattern? And it if has, in what way/ways? This particular question is the crux of this paper. # II. # History of G.S.M Introduction in Anyigba Community Global System for Mobile Communication popularly known as G.S.M came into Nigeria in the year 2001 and Anyigba was one of the late boomers of G.S.M. technology in Nigeria. This is because in Anyigba community, information technology was not quickly embraced. There were no GSM networks in Anyigba until 2005 when the then vice chancellor of the Kogi State University, situated at the heart of the community, felt the need for this technology because there were not enough social amenities to cope with the increasing population of both the school and the community. The vice chancellor spoke to two telecommunication networks; MTEL and MTN to install masts for their networks. After setting up the masts, it took MTN and MTEL 2months and 6months respectively to activate their masts. Consequent upon the coming of this telecoms services, there were still network problems due to over congestion that is, the one mast set up by each telecom service providers could not serve the entire population of the community. This created opportunities for other service providers. Glo then came in 2006, Celtel (which is now Airtel) in 2007 and Etisalat in 2011. GSM technology has improved tremendously and this has created a multiplier effect, improving the standard of living of the people by creating job opportunities for the teeming youths in the community and also increased the number of small-scale business such as recharge card printers and road side G.S.M. operators. # a) Objectives of the Study The objectives of the study include: ? An examination of Pre-GSM service in Anyigba community ? Reasons for the introduction of GSM in Nigeria and its impact on the Nigeria economy. The research hypothesis to be tested was formulated as follows: H 0 The introduction of GSM service has no significant impact on students expenditure pattern in Kogi State University. H 1 The introduction of GSM service has significant impact on student expenditure pattern in Kogi State University. # III. # Literature Review a) Introduction The concept, importance and economic implycations of GSM have been discussed severally and widely. Balogun, (2008) opined that the advent of GSM facilitates economic development as it provides easy and effective communication needed to stimulate and promote trade between Nigerians and its foreign partners in the world. According to Tella et al (2007), GSM has emerged as an integral and essential part of the culture and life of Nigerians. It had played and still currently playing a significant role in communication and also helps in encouraging investment. Okereocha (2008) found that over 1,000,000 Nigerians have been directly and indirectly employed by the operators. While supportive enterprise and service organization like banking, consultancies, insurance etc. have themselves blossomed. According to Soyinka (2008), in Bakare et al (2010) mobile phone has continued to empower the poor by opening up veritable windows of wealth generation for them to get out of the scourge of poverty. For Adebayo (2008), the introduction of mobile telecoms has the potential for reducing the cost of doing business and increasing output. Similarly, the introduction of GSM in Nigeria has had its own effect on the pattern of expenditure of Nigerians. According to Aderibigbe (2007), some household even prepare a separate budget on GSM recharge (card and vouchers) beside their expenditure on food, transport, housing etc. Soyinka (2008) and Ndukwe (2008) reported that the GSM business has contributed to the economy in the area of GSM recharge card printing. This has had the effect of saving Nigeria of about $150 million monthly while providing employment and new skill to the dealers. It has also improved entertainment and networking among Nigerians, using short message services, SMS and the signal calls. This view has been i. To Generate Employment GSM aid in creating employment opportunity in the country in different angles or ways such as GSM dealer i.e, those that sell GSM phone, GSM accessories, GSM repairs, those selling card, those making calls etc. In Nigeria GSM has helped to reduce the level of unemployment in the nation and thereby helping the government to develop the Nigerian economy. ii. To create a means of efficient communication Today people can stay in Lagos or any other part of the world to communicate unlike in the older days of NITEL cable, when the means the communication is some how restricted and not every individual can afford to buy NITEL phones. iii. To reduce congestion of vehicles on the road Before the introduction of GSM people travel daily on the road trying to deliver information or messages here and there and individuals spend their time and money in transportation for the purpose of delivering information. However, the issue of GSM has helped to reduce such congestion on the high way thereby enabling individual to stay at home and deliver information from one place to another (Asouzu: 1995). # iv. For the reduction of accident Since individuals can stay at home and deliver information without being on the road, the issue of accident is reduced. v. To serve as a source of revenue to the government Taxes are paid by company owners, operators and all employees who are employed either directly or indirectly to the state and federal government. # vi. To enhance banking services The introduction of GSM also increased the volume of services rendered by banks. Recharge cards are stored and sold in bulk by banks thereby enabling them to charge commission and also invest the money and make little profit before submission or making returns for sales. vii. To reduce fraud in the banking industry One can use GSM to monitor his/her account. viii. To promote global marketing GSM also help to promote global marketing. This is done by transacting business globally or with other foreign countries through GSM phone call. ix. To promote International Trade GSM also enhance ordering of goods and services through making GSM phone calls. x. To Enhance Security Police can easily be contacted at any point in time in case of any problem of robbery or other related cases which may arise. xi. To improve the services of fire services/brigade Through GSM communication, the fire brigade and other agencies involved would be timely informed about any fire accident which may arise at any point in time. xii. To contribute to the development of rural areas thereby making it possible and easy for those who are in rural areas to communicate immediately with those in urban are in other words aid the development of rural areas. c) The Positive Impact of GSM on Nigeria Economic Development ? Immediate dissemination of information: GSM encourages fast dissemination of information to protect some event which may happen within a limited or short period of time. ? It facilitates business transaction: Another positive impact of GSM is that it facilitates the means of transacting business. A customer or buyer of a particular product may be at his business premises and order for goods for immediate distribution. ? Assessment of Information: information can be assessed through making calls, police and other force can also assess information about a particular event through phone calls. Businesses in Anyigba have improved with the introduction of GSM; goods and services are delivered on time while delays are better managed and crises truly averted. Families have become closer than ever before through the use of GSM information. Information is passed easily to members, especially when partners or parents are staying apart due to work, school or other challenges. IV. # Research Methodology Here the research methodology of the study is presented, emphasis shall be laid on the area of the study, model specification, research design, sources and method of data collection, sampling procedure and sample size and the data processing techniques. # a) Research Design The research design adopted for collection is the sample survey. This is because, it is capable of testing specific hypothesis and allows sample to be drawn from the whole population. Sample size drawn for this study was limited to the selected students of Kogi State University, Anyigba as they represent the use of questionnaires, personal interviews. *Oral interview was used for the collection of data from the target respondents. # b) Research Method The method to be adopted in carrying out this work is the scientific method. Scientific method is defined as a systematic, controllable, empirical and unbiased investigation of the hypothetical proposition about the assumed relationship between the variables that create a particular state of affairs. # c) Population of the Study The population studied in this research is Kogi State University as a case study. The respondents on which questionnaires were administered were students of both undergraduate and postgraduate students of Kogi State University. # d) Sources of Data Basically two types of data were used in this study. These include primary and secondary data. Primary data were obtained from questionnaires that were administered on students of Kogi State University. Secondary data were obtained from articles, term and seminar papers, reports and relevant literature on the research topic. # e) Sample Size and Sampling Methods The study used a sample of 300 students which comprised both male and female students of the undergraduates and postgraduate students. Therefore the sampling technique employed in this research was simple random sampling. # f) Method of Data Analysis Chi-square was used to test the hypothesis; the hypothesis was tested separately on the basis of the supplied data for easy understanding. Chi-square is the measure of discrepancies, existing between the observed frequency and expected frequency supplied by the statistic. It is a greek letter denoted by x 2 X 2 = E (fo -fe) 2 /fe Where E = Summation X 2 = The chi-square Fo = Observed frequency Fe = Expected frequency The hypothesis was tested at 5% level of significance. The degree of freedom is expressed as follows: Df = (c-1) (r-1) Where; c = Column number R = Row number V. # Data Presentation and Analysis a) Data Presentation This chapter involves the presentation and data analysis of data gathered from the questionnaires which were administered on the sample selected. For the analysis, table and sample percentage (100%) will be used to present data while the test of hypothesis shall be carried out using chi-square (x 2 ) at 5% level of significance with relevant degree of freedom to validate the research hypothesis. A total of 300 questionnaires were administered. # b) Data Analysis In analyzing the data, questionnaires were designed to get the respondents view on a number of issues relating to the introduction of GSM and its effect on students' expenditure pattern. The questionnaires were administered on students' of Kogi State University, Anyigba. Source : Field Survey, 2012 The table above shows that 75 of the respondents representing 25% are under 20years of age, 160 of the respondent representing 53% are between the ages of 21-30 years old, 40 of the respondents representing 13% are between the ages of 31-40 years old, 15 of the respondents representing 5% are between 41-50 years old and 10 of the respondents representing 4% are between 51-60. This is because past graduate students were also interviewed. Source : Field Survey, 2012 The table above shows that majority of the respondents are single. Source : Field Survey, 2012 The table above shows that 50 respondents are equally chosen from each faculty in the University. Source : Field Survey, 2012 The table above indicates that all the respondents have phones. Source : Field Survey, 2012 The table above shows that 40 of the respondents representing 13.3% have been using their mobile phones between 1-3years, 160 of the respondents representing 53.3% have been using their mobile phones for the period between 4-6years while 70 of the respondents representing 23.3% have been using their mobile phones for the period between 7-9years and 30 others representing 10.1% have been using mobile for the period of 10years and above. Those that have used mobile phone for over ten years have used them before coming to K.S.U and are postgraduate students. Source : Field Survey, 2012 From the table it shows that 35% of the respondent buy recharge card, 8.3% of the respondent recharge their phone at ATM print, 26.7% of the respondent transfer credit from call centres, 10% recharge through transfer from their parents, while 20% of the respondents recharge their mobile through transfer from friends. This is easily comprehensible as the respondents are majorly undergraduate students and do not find it too easy to buy recharge card. Source : Field Survey, 2012 From the table above 20% of the respondent recharge daily, 40% of the respondent recharge once a week, 26.7% of the respondent recharge twice a week, 6.7% of the respondent recharge their phone three times a week and four time a week respectively. Those that recharge 3-4 times a week recharge only with very small amounts. Source : Field Survey, 2012 The table above shows that majority of the respondent are living on a monthly allowance of N5000 (about $33) a month. Source : Field Survey, 2012 From the table analyzed above majority of the respondents (81%) spend N1000 -N2000 on recharge card monthly. Source : Field Survey, 2012 From table above, it shows that 46% of the respondents spend their money on food and books respectively while toiletries, transport and clothing are responsible for the balance of 54% Source : Field Survey, 2012 From the table analyzed above shows that majority of the respondents spend their money on GSM as their 1 st priority, followed by others. # Test of Hypothesis 0 E 0-E (0-E) 2 (0-E) # Decision Rule ? Accept alternative hypothesis H 1 and reject null hypothesis H 0 when the X 2 cal > X 2 tab ? Accept the null hypothesis H 0 and reject alternative hypothesis H 1 when the X 2 cal < X 2 tab a) Decision Since the calculated X 2 = 470.59 is greater that the value of tabulated X 2 = 9.49, H 1 is accepted and H 0 is rejected. Therefore we conclude that the introduction of GSM has impacted on the student expenditure pattern. # VIII. # Discussion of Findings From the test of hypothesis, it was found that: a) A significant relationship exist between the introduction of GSM in Anyigba and students' expenditure pattern. b) The amount (percentage) spent on GSM services takes priority over budgeted amount on expenditure such as food, clothing, transport etc. c) Introduction of GSM in Anyigba community has an increasing effect on students' expenditure pattern as most students' interviewed would prefer to have sufficient airtime on their phones rather than having the cash on them, or spend more money buying airtime. The introduction of GSM has even altered the students expenditure pattern in such a way that the major items of expenditure before the introduction of GSM, (food, academic/photocopies) have lost their position of prominence. Students are ready to sleep in hunger than not having airtime on their phone. The huge benefits of the GSM, the new technology has come with its challenges since its introduction in Anyigba, Kogi State University in particular. There have been increases in the act of students using the device to cheat during examinations by scanning material in their handset. This development has become a major threat to our Educational system as it has direct bearing on the quality of graduates produced by the fraudulent system. Not only that, students do not go to the library as they should again. They mostly do all their assignments using the telephone-which has encouraged academic laziness. Mobile lies have increased astronomically among students with the GSM which makes it convenient for users to tell lies about their location and other sundry issues. Also, GSM has been identified as the facilitator of rumours, gossip and false alarm. With the aid of this instrument, rumours have spread like wild fire, far and wide and could make crises control/management very difficult-particularly within the university system. Generally, speaking GSM has come to affect the way students sleep, eat, think and ultimately their health, as they indulge in night calls, it affects preproductivity when student waste valuable time on trivial conversation with boy and girl friends. It has eaten deep into the lean fabric of student allowances or pocket money, crashing their budget and causing discomfort to their education and lives. Finally, it has posed a lot of challenges for service providers to meet the demands of its teeming subscribers and this has resulted in failing service quality. NITEL, the only national operator in the communication industry had absolute monopoly of the industry, which was highly characterized by epileptic services and bad management which made telephone service then to be unreliable, congested, expensive and customer unfriendly. # IX. # Summary of Findings NITEL still continued to retain monopoly power over voice telephony in both national and long distance international calls, until the last decade when GSM came into operation after the inception of president Olusegun Obasanjo Administration in May 1999. The government brought a deregulated telecommunication sector by auctioning three Global Systems for Mobile communication (GSM) license in January 2001 for US $285 million each and further reserved a license for NITEL at the end. Only two out of the three companies at the auction, MTN communication, ECONET wireless and NITEL were awarded full GSM licenses. ECONET was the first wireless who commenced operation on August 6, 2001 with its post paid package popularly referred to as pay as you-go. Over the years, the cost of acquiring GSM lines and mobile devices were very high. During this time only the rich and affluent in the society could afford to buy a line and mobile devices. Apart from the high cost of acquiring a GSM line and mobile devices, it was also not readily available, with the activation of line taking several working days. The above scenario poses serious communication challenges to Anyigba town and environs. Any student wishing to communicate with his/her guidance will have to do so by traveling over some distance in order to have access to GSM services and where he/she found one, it was usually characterized with poor networks and high call rates. The only alternative left at their disposal will be to send messages through the motorists and commercial bus drivers. Consequently, from the data analyzed it was noted that the expenditure pattern on food and academics were 28.3% before the advent of GSM in Anyigba community. But with the introduction of GSM, the expenditure pattern on food remained the same for the same selected respondents' i.e 28.3% while that of academic dropped by 10% accounting for 18.3% giving way for GSM expenditure to rise to a whooping 26.7%. Buying of Recharge cards have ranked second behind food as the major expenditure of students since the introduction of GSM services in Anyigba community. X. # Conclusions Now that GSM services are available in Anyigba, every single student has access to one. From this research, it was found that some students even use more than one GSM line and more mobile devices ranging from a simple mobile phone to the more sophisticated one. The effect of which is an increase in their expenditure pattern. Some students will prefer to have airtime on their phones rather than to buy food stuffs. They spend as much as N3000 to N5,000 per month on GSM recharge cards and vouchers. Also, it is interesting to note that students use their mobile device to perform varieties of task, but despite the huge benefits of the GSM, the new innovation/technology came with its own evils as some students had been caught using their mobile devices to cheat during examinations, saving materials on their handsets and browse the internet to provide answers to questions during examination. This unwholesome development has brought about a huge threat to our education system as it has direct impact on the quality of graduates being produced by the fraudulent system. Apart from the above mentioned evil which students indulge in with the use of their mobile devices, there are also a number of other crimes that are made evident with the use of mobile phones among students. Girls, particularly are ready to do anything to have blackberry which they use for pinging and other social network such as tweeter, 2go, whatsapp etc. which in most cases are short cuts to prostitution. # XI. # Recommendations From the findings and conclusions presented above, the following recommendations were made to students of Kogi State University. Students should work towards achieving a balanced expenditure in their spending. To achieve this goal, students will need to be prudent in their spending pattern. From the interview conducted, it was revealed that most students recharge their GSM lines daily. Some of the students interviewed do not handle/have textbooks as much as they handle/have mobile devices. To many of the students interviewed, their expenditure on their GSM lines take priority over and above all other expenditure on such materials as food stuffs, clothing and even their textbooks etc. the effect of this is poor academic performance on the part of such students. This is because they have paid very little attention to their primary purpose of being here. In addition, students should in the interest of their academic endeavor scale down significantly the amount spent on buying recharge cards and mobile gadgets, and to work assiduously towards achieving academic excellence as this is their primary purpose of being here. More should also be spent on buying ![(2008), According to him; the telecommunication sector has become a major tool for empowering Nigerians and with the continued inflow of massive investment and the doggedness of the industry regulator, the future looks bright.b) Reasons for the Introduction of GSM in NigeriaGSM in Nigeria, introduced by the government of president Obasanjo in 2001 has helped in its economic development in various ways. The reasons for its introduction are stipulated below:](image-2.png "") ? Cost Saving advantage: Transportation cost whichindividual may incur by moving from one place orarea to another is eliminated through making aminute call or sending SMS message which costlittle amount which is below what could have beenspent on transport.? With the introduction of GSM, there has beenimproved police service delivery as security is moreguaranteed-through quicker dissemination ofinformation.? GSM has also improved the services of fire brigadeand therefore reduce excessive fire waste which hasbeen recorded in Nigeria years gone by.? Saving of life and property in case of accident. Usage of ambulance has been enhanced through the introduction of GSM.? Encourages Economic Stability: Equally important feature of the GSM is the ability to connect to the internet with the Blackberry. This has made communication a lot 1SexFrequencyPercentageMale15652%Female14448%Total300100Source : Field Survey, 2012From the table above, 156 of the respondentsrepresenting 52% are males, while 144 of therespondents representing 48% are females.C 2Age bracketFrequencyPercentageUnder 207525%20-3015053%31-404013%41-50155%51-60104%Total300100% 3OptionsFrequencyPercentageMarried3512%Single26588%Total300100% 4OptionsFrequencyPercentageUndergraduate21571.7%Postgraduate8528.3%Total300100%Source : Field Survey, 2012The table above shows that 215 of therespondents resenting 71.7% are undergraduatestudents while 85 of the respondents representing28.3% are postgraduate students. Majority of therespondents are undergraduates. 5OptionsFrequency PercentageAgric sciences5016.7%Management sciences5016.7%Art And Humanities5016.7%Natural sciences5016.7%Social sciences5016.7%Law5016.7%Total300100% 6OptionsFrequencyPercentageYes I do300100%No I don't--Total300100% 7phone?OptionsFrequency Percentage1-3years4013.3%4-6years16053.3%7-9years7023.3%10years and above3010.1%Total300100% 8OptionsFrequencyPercentageOne11036.7%Two9030%Three6020%Four and above4013.3%Total300100%Source : Field Survey, 2012From the table above, it indicates that majorityof the respondents 63.3% more than one use one GSMnetwork. 92013earYVolume XIII Issue VIII Version I( ) COptions GLO MTN AIRTELnetworks? Frequency 75 160 40Percentage 25% 53.3% 13.3%Global Journal of Management and Business ResearchETISALAT258.3%Total300100%Source : Field Survey, 2012From the table above, it shows that 75 of therespondent representing 25% use GLO network, 160 ofthe respondent representing 53.3% use MTN network, 10OptionsFrequencyPercentageGLO7525%MTN16053.3%AIRTEL4013.3%ETISALAT258.3%Total300100%Source : Field Survey, 2012From the table above it shows that to majority ofthe respondents MTN is most preferred network 11OptionsFrequencyPercentageBuying a card10535%ATM Print258.3%Credit Transfer8026.7%at call centreCredit transfer3010%from parentCredit transfer6020%from friendTotal300100% 12OptionsFrequencyPercentageDaily6020%Once a week12040%Twice a week8026.7%Three times a206.7%weekFour times a206.7%weekTotal300100% 13allowance?OptionsFrequencyPercentageBelow N500013445%N6000-N10,0007625%N11,000 -N15,000248%N16,000 -N20,000217%N21,000 -N25,000186%N26,000 -N30,000155%Above N30,000124%Total300100% 14monthly?OptionsFrequency PercentageBelow N100015050%N1000 -N20009531%N3000 -N40004515%N5,000 and above1015%Total300100% 15OptionsFrequency PercentageFood200023%Toiletries150018%Academic/photocopies200023%Transport1500I8%Clothing150018Total8500100% 16OptionsFrequency PercentageFood150017.65%Academic/photocopies150017.65%Transport150017.65%Clothing150017.65%GSM Services250029.40%Total8500100% © 2013 Global Journals Inc. (US) textbooks and educational materials so as to aid their academic well being. * Seven Years of Telecoms Revolution -The Fun and Fury. This is how it all began FAdebayo 2008 Tell Magazine of Nigeria * Seven Years of Telecoms Revolution -Hello! This is how it all began OAAdegboyega 2008 Tell Magazine of Nigeria * A Century of Telecommunication Development in Nigeria -what next Ajayi 2008 * Digitalization of Communication Network in Nigeria: implementation Perspective CDAsouzu 1995 * Impact of GSM on culture and technical interchange between east and west JBalogun 2008 Gwagwalada Abuja * Seven Years of Telecoms Revolution -Tell Magazine of Nigeria ENdukwe 2008 * Seven Years of Telecoms Revolution -One revolution, A Thousand Gains COkereocha 2008 Tell Magazine of Nigeria * SATella LAAdesoye BA Telecommunications Infrastructure and Economic Growth: Evidence from Nigeria"-A paper submitted for the Un-Idep AND Afea Joint Conference on Sector-Led Growth in Africa and Implication for Development Dakar, Senegal 2007 * KSoyinka Seven Years of Telecoms Revolution -"Breeding jobs for the Masses 2008 7 * KSSridhar VSidhar 2003 * The Effect of Telecommunicating on Sub-urbanization; Empirical Evidence J. Regional Anal. Policy 1