Investors' Investment Decisions in Capital Market: Key Factors

Table of contents

1. Introduction

apital market is one of the critical components of any economy. Therefore, investment decision of the investors in the capital market is very sensitive. Different measures of stock market activities are positively correlated with measures of real economic growth across countries (Levine and Zervos, 1998). This association is particularly strong for developing countries. As an economically potential developing country, capital market is certainly a key factor for Bangladesh. Recent instability in the overall capital market of this country highly enticed the policymakers. The situation demands to analyze the decision making process of the actors in the capital market. Thus, this study attempts to explore the key factors those the investors consider while making their investment decisions in the capital market. The stock market regulatory authority and the policy makers might find the results helpful in avoiding any unexpected catastrophe, improving the stock market industry and assessing to which degree the stock market is needed to be reformed.

2. II.

3. Methodology

This is a survey based descriptive research. 25 key variables were considered initially. Malhotra (2008) defines that there should be at least 4 or 5 times as many observations (sample size) as there are variables. Hence, a total of 125 investors from different brokerage houses of Bangladesh had been surveyed. Investors were chosen conveniently (non-probability sampling technique). A structured questionnaire was used to collect investors' responses. The respondents were asked to respond against 25 close ended statements on a 5-point Likert Scale where '1' denotes 'Strongly Disagree' and '5' denotes 'Strongly Agree'. The key variables were Dividend, Earnings per Share (EPS), Retained earnings, Price Earning (P/E) Ratio, Returned on Investment (ROI), Company News, AGM, Company Goodwill, Industry Growth, Price Hike of Necessary Goods, Market Sentiment, Agents ' III.

4. Literature Review

Investors' perception and market behavior are the key concern of the capital market analysts or researchers. Stock market's contribution on the overall economy of a country is well discussed by different scholars (Singh, 1997;Singh, 1971;Bhide, 1994). Empirical evidence linking stock market development to economic growth has been inconclusive. Though the balance of evidence is in favor of a positive relationship between stock markets and economic growth. Levine and Zervos (1998) found that various measures of stock market activities are positively correlated with measures of real economic growth in different countries and this relationship is particularly strong in the developing countries. On the contrary, Benson (2002) found this positive impact of capital market development largely dependent on the inclusion of higher income countries.

Movements of stock prices depend on number of factors. The decomposition of stock price movements is very sensitive to what assumption is made about the presence of permanent changes in either real dividend growth or excess stock return (Balke & Wohar, 2006). Cochrane (1992) and Timmerman (1995) have argued that fluctuation in stock prices can be explained by timevarying discount rates and future excess returns. Raihan & Ullah (2007), from their study on Chittagong Stock Exchange (Bangladesh), found that stock return series do not follow random walk model in Bangladeshi capital market. Similar findings of the work of Mobarek and Keasay (2000) on Dhaka Stock Exchange of Bangladesh support this argument.

Conducting research in Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE), Rahman, et al (2006) found the negative correlation between the beta and stock return, which is reason for inefficiency of market where the assumptions behind the CAPM model is not supported. Wong, et al (2009) found that when limit hits are imminent stock prices approach limit bounds at faster rates and with increased volatility and higher trade efficiency.

The critical challenge in this field of research is to determine the factors influence the stock price in the capital market. A large number of empirical studies had been conducted about the determinants of stock prices. Several researchers examined the relationships between stock prices and selected factors. These factors could be either internal or external. The findings of their research illustrate different outcomes depending on the scope of research. Many of these factors could be valid for all stock markets. In this section some of these studies are reviewed.

It is generally assumed that the emerging markets are less efficient than the developed markets. Rahman, et al (2006) found the negative correlation between the beta and stock return. This is one of the reasons for inefficiency in the capital market. The movement of stock price is very sensitive to what assumption is made about the presence of permanent changes in either real dividend growth or excess stock return (Balke & Wohar, 2006). Dividend change announcements cause a greater change in stock price when the nature of the news (good or bad) goes against the grain of the recent market direction during volatile times (Docking and Koch, 2005). After using this macroeconomic variables like gross national product (GNP), interest rate and inflation, Al-Qenae (2002) found inflation and interest rate have negative and statistically significant coefficients in almost all cases on stock prices while GNP has positive effect. Maysami and Koh (2000) illustrated the connection of money supply growth, change in short and long term interest rates, inflation and variation in exchange rates with the changes in Singapore's stock market levels.

Udegbunam & Eriki (2001) revealed that stock prices and inflation provides a strong support for the proposition that inflation exerts a significant negative influence on the behavior of the prices of the stocks. They also exhibited that stock prices are also strongly driven by the level of economic activity measured by interest rate, GDP, financial deregulation and money stock. Joshep and Vezos (2006) proclaim that interest rate and foreign exchange rate risks are important financial and economic factors affecting the value of common stocks. The results indicate a significant and negative relation between stock prices and inflation. And the output growth negatively and significantly affect stock prices. Tsoukalas (2003) used industrial production, exchange rate, consumer prices and money supply as macroeconomic factors and revealed a strong relationship between stock prices with those factors. Ibrahim (2003) found that the Malaysian stock price index is positively related to consumer price index, money supply and industrial production. It is negatively related to the movement of exchange rates.

Since consumer price index and investors' perception are two critical issues for the movement of stock prices, this study aims to explore the factors those are valued by the capital market investors.

IV.

5. Analysis & Discussion

25 initial variables werechosen to identify the factors affecting investment decisions in the stock market. A total of 125 investors were surveyed. Summary of their responses toward those factors are portrayed here. The above responses indicate that there are some factors to which investors are more responsive, like dividend, EPS, company goodwill, industry growth, SEC regulation, change in government policy etc. The respondents are found to be less responsive to the factors like P/E ratio; price hike of necessary goods, market rumor etc. But this is their average result. In contrast, some factors were found which has got two extreme end responses i.e. both strongly agree and strongly disagree. So it will not to be justified to leave any comment only based upon the mean result. Here the standard deviation of the response frequency is also depicted. It shows the dispersion of response from mean. The variance here is showing the responsiveness of mean in relation to standard deviation. The lesser variance is showing more representative result. Here the result of P/E ratio, ROI, price hike of necessary goods, agents' advice, market rumor, inflation, Interest rate, International situation etc. are possessing more reliable result according to variance. For a justified list of influential factors, factor analysis was performed later.

Here a mean comparison is done to get the idea about to what extent factors are affecting male and female investors in their investment decisions. In this study, 106 male and 19 female investors are surveyed. Among them all are not agreed with same factor as a determinant of their investment decision. Here, it is found that the most important factor to male is 'dividend' whereas it is the 6 th important factor to female investors. Again, where 'industry growth' is the most important factor to female, it is the 3 rd most important factor for the male investors. Some of the factors are commonly rated by both the male and female investors. Those are: company goodwill (2 nd ), law suit file (5 th ), market sentiment (17 th ), price hike of necessary goods (23 rd ) and market rumor (25 th ). Top and least five determinants for investment for the male are given in the below table: From the survey, it is noticeable that 'company goodwill' and 'law suit file' are the common determinants among the top five important factors for both male and female investors, whereas price hike of necessary goods and market rumor are the common determinants among the least five important factors for both type of investors.

This study further conducted 'factor analysis'for data reduction.Factor analysisallows to reduce a large number of correlated variables to a smaller number of 'super variables'. So, factor analysis was conducted in this study with the data collected from field survey. For testing appropriateness of the factor model, Bartlett's test is used. The summary of KMO and Bartlett's Test result is presented here: The Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin (KMO) is a measure of sampling adequacy. The approximate chi-square statistic is 2067.491 with degree of freedom of 300 at the 0.05 level of significance. The appropriateness of factor analysis requires the KMO statistic to be ranging from 0.5 to 1.0. Here the value of KMO statistic is 0.685. Hence this indicates the appropriateness of factor analysis and also suggest further investigation. Here Principle Component Analysis (PCA) method is used. The above summary of "Communalities" shows that the communality (in "Initial" column) for each variable is 1.000.

In order to summarize the information contained in the original variables, a smaller number of factors should be extracted. Eigenvalues approach had been used here for this purpose. This table shows the eigenvalue for a factor which indicates the total variance explained by each factor. The total variance accounted for all 25 variables is 25.00 which is equal to the number of variable. Here, variable 1 has got a variance of 5.686, which is (5.686/25) or 22.745% of the total variance. Again like the variable 1, the second variable has got a variance of 3.700, which is (3.700/25) or 14.801% of the total variance and the first two factors has got a cumulative variance of 37.547%. Only factors with eigenvalue greater than 1.00 are retained and other factors are discarded. An eigenvalue represents the amount of variance associated with the factors.

The following table reveals that the eigenvalue greater than 1.0 (default option) results in seven factors being extracted. The cumulative percentage of variance testimony the first seven factors to be accounted for 78.684% of the variance.

In this approach, only factors with eigenvalues greater than 1.0 are retained. The other factors are not included in the model. It indicates the total variance attributed to that factor. Hence, only factors with a variance greater than 1 are included. Supporting factor. Factor 3 has got a high coefficient with variables V1: Dividend, V7: AGM, V22: SEC Regulations. This factor can be labeled as internal & regulatory factor. Again factor 4 has high coefficient for variables V3: Retained earnings, V6: Company News, V8: Company Goodwill. This factor may be labeled as company image factor. The next factor i.e. factor 5 has got some highly correlated variable as well. Those are V9: Industry Growth, V15: Market Rumor. Now this factor is labeled as market info factor. Again the 6 th factor has also got some highly correlated factor. Those are V10: Price Hike of Necessary Goods, V20: International Situation. Here this factor is labeled as the external factor. And lastly the factor 7 has also got some highly correlated variables like V11: Market Sentiment, V24: Political Connectivity of Company Owner. And this factor is labeled as other factor. It can be summarized that investors are being affected in their investment decision in the major issues related to internal & economic, internal & supporting, internal & regulatory, company image, market info, external and others.

Figure 1.
Investors' Investment Decisions in Capital Market: Key FactorsGlobal Journal of Management and Business ResearchVolume XV Issue IV Version I
Figure 2. Table 1 :
1
Dividend Earnings Per Share (EPS) Retained earnings Price Earning (P/E) Ratio (ROI) Company News AGM Company Goodwill Industry Growth Price Hike of Necessary Goods Market Sentiment Agents' Advice Available Substitutes
N 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125
Mean 4.33 4.12 3.77 2.95 3.68 3.83 3.88 4.24 4.24 2.97 3.48 3.04 3.08
Std. Deviation .990 .725 .805 1.453 1.082 .859 .972 .712 .837 1.062 .876 1.316 .894
Variance .980 .526 .647 2.111 1.171 .738 .945 .506 .700 1.128 .768 1.732 .800
Minimum 1 3 2 1 1 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1
Maximum 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
Credit Rating Agency's Report Market Rumor Inflation Exchange Rate Margin Loan Interest Rate International Situation Website, Social Blog SEC Regulations Change in Government Policies Political Connectivity of Company Owner Law Suit File
N 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125
Mean 3.17 2.69 3.89 3.55 3.02 3.75 3.34 3.57 4.13 4.07 3.66 4.12
Std. Deviation .957 1.298 1.179 .987 1.376 1.141 1.136 1.272 .842 .805 1.092 1.005
Variance .915 1.684 1.391 .975 1.895 1.301 1.289 1.618 .709 .648 1.193 1.010
Minimum 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 1
Maximum 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
Source: Field Survey, 2014
Figure 3. Table 2 :
2
No Variable Gender Mean Mean Ranking Gender Mean Mean Ranking
1 Dividend Male 4.37 1 Female 4.11 6
2 Company Goodwill Male 4.2 2 Female 4.47 2
3 Industry Growth Male 4.19 3 Female 4.53 1
4 SEC Regulations Male 4.15 4 Female 4 7
5 Law Suit File Male 4.11 5 Female 4.16 5
6 (EPS) Male 4.09 6 Female 4.26 3
7 Change in Government Policies Male 4.05 7 Female 4.21 4
8 AGM Male 3.92 8 Female 3.68 13
9 Inflation Male 3.87 9 Female 4 8
10 Company News Male 3.83 10 Female 3.84 11
11 Retained earnings Male 3.8 11 Female 3.58 14
12 Interest Rate Male 3.72 12 Female 3.95 10
13 Political Connectivity of Company Owner Male 3.71 13 Female 3.42 19
14 (ROI) Male 3.7 14 Female 3.58 15
15 Exchange Rate Male 3.5 15 Female 3.84 12
16 Website, Social Blog Male 3.49 16 Female 4 9
17 Market Sentiment Male 3.48 17 Female 3.47 17
18 International Situation Male 3.32 18 Female 3.42 20
19 Credit Rating Agency's Report Male 3.1 19 Female 3.53 16
20 Available Substitutes Male 3.08 20 Female 3.11 21
21 Margin Loan Male 3.08 21 Female 2.74 24
22 Agents' Advice Male 2.99 22 Female 3.47 18
23 Price Hike of Necessary Goods Male 2.97 23 Female 2.95 23
24 P/E Ratio Male 2.93 24 Female 3.05 22
25 Market Rumor Male 2.72 25 Female 2.53 25
Source: Field Survey, July, 2014
Figure 4. Table 3 :
3
Top Five Least Five
Mean Ranking Variable Mean Mean Ranking Variable Mean
1 Dividend 4.37 21 Margin Loan 3.08
2 Company Goodwill 4.2 22 Agents' Advice 2.99
3 Industry Growth 4.19 23 Price Hike of Necessary Goods 2.97
4 SEC Regulations 4.15 24 Price Earning (P/E) Ratio 2.93
5 Law Suit File 4.11 25 Market Rumor 2.72
Source: Field Survey, July, 2014
Figure 5. Table 4 :
4
Top Five Least Five
Mean Ranking Variable Mean Mean Ranking Variable Mean
1 Industry Growth 4.53 21 Available Substitutes 3.11
2 Company Goodwill 4.47 22 Price Earning (P/E) Ratio 3.05
3 Earnings Per Share (EPS) 4.26 23 Price Hike of Necessary Goods 2.95
4 Change in Government Policies 4.21 24 Margin Loan 2.74
5 Law Suit File 4.16 25 Market Rumor 2.53
Source: Field Survey, July, 2014
Figure 6. Table 5 :
5
Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin Measure of Sampling Adequacy. .685
Approx. Chi-Square 2067.491
Bartlett's Test of Sphericity Df 300
Sig. .000
Figure 7. Table 6 :
6
Investors' Investment Decisions in Capital Market: Key Factors
Figure 8. Table 7 :
7
Initial Eigenvalues
Component Total % of Variance Cumulative % Component Total % of Variance Cumulative %
1 5.686 22.745 22.745 14 .383 1.531 92.309
2 3.700 14.801 37.547 15 .358 1.433 93.741
3 2.990 11.959 49.506 16 .259 1.034 94.775
4 2.191 8.766 58.272 17 .217 .866 95.642
5 1.666 6.666 64.937 18 .203 .810 96.452
6 1.337 5.347 70.285 19 .180 .722 97.174
7 1.100 4.399 74.684 20 .160 .641 97.814
8 .873 3.493 78.177 21 .148 .591 98.405
9 .830 3.319 81.496 22 .123 .493 98.898
10 .777 3.108 84.604 23 .116 .465 99.362
11 .549 2.197 86.801 24 .092 .370 99.732
12 .504 2.016 88.817 25 .067 .268 100.000
13 .490 1.961 90.778
Extraction Method: Principal Component Analysis
Figure 9. Table 8 :
8
Extraction Sums of Squared Loadings
Component Total % of Variance Cumulative %
1 5.686 22.745 22.745
2 3.700 14.801 37.547
3 2.990 11.959 49.506
4 2.191 8.766 58.272
5 1.666 6.666 64.937
6 1.337 5.347 70.285
7 1.100 4.399 74.684
Figure 10. Table 9 :
9
Rotation Sums of Squared Loadings
Components Total % of Variance Cumulative %
1 4.519 18.075 18.075
2 3.125 12.501 30.576
3 2.462 9.849 40.425
4 2.373 9.491 49.916
5 2.086 8.345 58.261
6 2.084 8.336 66.597
7 2.022 8.087 74.684
Through the above table, the rotation of sums of absolute value indicates that the factor and the variable
squared loading is done. The following table (Table 10) are closely related.
shows the rotated factor matrix. Here, in this study, Varimax procedure had
This matrix represents correlation between the been used for rotation. Summary of rotated component
factors and the variables. A coefficient with a large matrix is presented here
Figure 11. Table 10 :
10
Component
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
V1: Dividend -.133 -.210 .855 .063 -.017 .158 .074
V2: Earnings Per Share (EPS) -.080 .843 .059 .075 -.010 -.280 .121
V3: Retained earnings -.037 -.194 -.179 .569 .210 -.030 -.440
V4: Price Earning (P/E) Ratio -.821 -.161 -.164 .176 .087 .152 -.114
V5: Returned on Investment (ROI) -.591 -.591 -.132 .198 -.012 -.036 .125
V6: Company News .008 -.078 .286 .652 -.156 -.011 .096
V7: AGM .095 .334 .786 -.177 .038 -.204 .157
V8: Company Goodwill .038 -.014 -.113 .694 -.099 .044 .035
V9: Industry Growth .032 .246 .238 .290 -.596 .113 .152
V10: Price Hike of Necessary Goods -.329 .011 -.257 .000 .232 -.617 .392
V11: Market Sentiment -.023 .105 .186 .122 -.080 -.096 .840
V12: Agents' Advice .285 .533 -.437 -.239 .154 .341 -.258
V13: Available Substitutes -.471 -.081 -.165 .353 .435 -.369 .068
V14: Credit Rating Agency's Report -.013 .804 -.009 -.116 -.072 .362 -.030
V15: Market Rumor .375 .197 .180 -.161 .752 -.098 .122
V16: Inflation .696 .010 .033 .260 .258 .210 -.229
V17: Exchange Rate .744 -.023 -.273 -.010 .074 .292 -.038
V18: Margin Loan .018 -.623 .127 .181 .605 .223 .060
V19: Interest Rate .683 -.064 -.055 -.282 .283 .363 -.013
V20: International Situation .263 -.007 -.100 .087 -.008 .826 .071
V21: Website, Social Blog .656 .266 -.003 .042 .102 .226 -.324
V22: SEC Regulations -.019 -.027 .606 .578 .052 .013 .329
V23: Change in Government Policies .698 -.173 -.177 .242 -.255 .032 .108
V24: Political Connectivity of Company -.214 -.450 .169 .001 .265 .096 .680
Owner
V25: Law Suit File .608 -.312 -.024 .361 .365 .249 -.157
Extraction Method: Principal Component Analysis;
Rotation Method: Varimax with Kaiser Normalization; Rotation converged in 10 iterations
Figure 12. Table 11 :
11
Factor Variables Surrogate Variables
Factor 1 (Internal & Economic) V4: Price Earning (P/E) Ratio V4: Price Earning (P/E) Ratio (-0.821)
V5: Returned on Investment (ROI)
V13: Available Substitutes
V16: Inflation
V17: Exchange Rate
V19: Interest Rate
V21: Website, Social Blog
V23: Change in Government Policies
V25: Law Suit File
Factor 2 (Internal & Supporting) V2: Earnings Per Share (EPS) V2: Earnings Per Share (EPS) (0.843)
V12: Agents' Advice
V14: Credit Rating Agency's Report
V18: Margin Loan
Factor 3 (Internal & Regulatory) V1: Dividend V1: Dividend (0.855)
V7: AGM
V22: SEC Regulations
Factor Variables Surrogate Variables
Factor 4 (Company Image) V3: Retained earnings V8: Company Goodwill (0.694)
V6: Company News
1

Appendix A

Appendix A.1 Global Journal of Management and Business Research

Volume XV Issue IV Version I Year ( )

Therefore V4 would be selected as surrogate variable under factor 1 since it has the highest factor loading. V2, V12, V14, V18 have high loading on factor 2 and among the 4 variables V2 has the highest loading. So EPS (V2) can be selected as the surrogate variable for factor 2. Again among the high loading variables V1, V7, V22 the highest loading is by V1 (Dividend) which in turns becomes the surrogate variable for factor 3.

In this way the surrogate variable of factor 4, factor 5, factor 6 and factor 7 is respectively V8 (Company Goodwill), V15 (Market Rumor), V20 (International Situation) and V11 (Market Sentiment), as those are the highest loading among the high loadings (Khan, 2006).

V.

Appendix A.2 Findings And Conclusion

Key factors like dividend, EPS, company goodwill, industry growth, SEC regulation and change in government policy are having higher mean score. At the same time,factors with lower mean score are P/E ratio, price hike of necessary goods, market rumor etc. The core factors identified through factor analysis through which investors' investment decision can be affected. This study was conducted based on a developing country's capital market. The research outcome would be more effective if the study was conducted in a comparative manner with three different types of economy, i.e. under developed economy, developing economy and developed economy. Yet, this study is expected to contribute to the researches on capital market behavior. The key investment factors identified by this research will help the policymakers to their endeavor to reform the capital market.

Appendix B

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  7. Macroeconomic factors and stock prices in the emerging Cypriot equity market. D Tsoukalas . Managerial Finance 2003. 29 (4) p. .
  8. Factors Affecting the Selection of a Particular Product: A Behavioural Study on Consumer Goods Toothpaste, E A Khan . 2006. 7 p. . Khulna University Studies
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  10. , Malaysia . Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy 8 (1) p. .
  11. Chittagong stock market of Bangladesh: Turning of a weakform market into an efficient market. M A Raihan , M A Ullah . SAARC Journal of Human Resource Development 2007.
  12. Macroeconomic forces and capital market integration A VAR analysis for, M Ibrahim . 2003.
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  14. Marketing Research: An Applied Orientation, 5/E, N K Malhotra . 2008. Pearson Education India.
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  16. What drives stock prices? Identifying the determinants of stock price movements. N S Balke , M E Wohar . Southern Economic Journal 2006. p. .
  17. The information content of earnings on stock prices: The Kuwait Stock Exchange. R Al-Qenae , C Li , B Wearing . Multinational Finance Journal 2002. 6 (3&4) p. .
  18. A vector error correction model of the Singapore stock market. R C Maysami , T S Koh . International Review of Economics & Finance 2000. 9 (1) p. .
  19. Inflation and stock price behavior: Evidence from Nigerian stock market. R I Udegbunam , P O Eriki . Journal of Financial Management & Analysis 2001. 20 (14) p. 1.
  20. Stock markets, banks, and economic growth. R Levine , S Zervos . American economic review 1998. 88 p. .
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Notes
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© 2015 Global Journals Inc. (US)
Date: 2015 2015-03-15